Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2020-03-29

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-29 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SOCCER MASTER, ridden by M F Poon and trained by W Y So, won by 1, with LIVERBIRD STAR second and KWAI CHUNG ELITE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite HURRICANE HUNTER finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.23.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 SOCCER MASTER Closed strongly B/TT 1.23.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · W Y So 3 11.0 1
2 4 LIVERBIRD STAR Closed strongly B C Schofield · P O'Sullivan 5 5.6 1
3 8 KWAI CHUNG ELITE H/B1/TT1 G van Niekerk · R Gibson 8 13.0 2
4 1 HURRICANE HUNTER Closed strongly J Moreira · C H Yip 9 2.3 3
5 7 HUMBLE STEED Closed strongly V Borges · T P Yung 4 39.0 3-1/4
6 3 BLAZING PARTNERS Closed strongly SR N Callan · D E Ferraris 6 9.6 3-1/2
7 9 GLORIAM V-/TT- T H So · P F Yiu 10 108.0 3-3/4
8 11 GOLDEN CANNON Closed strongly B/H/XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 16.0 4-1/2
9 12 MONEY WINNER Closed strongly B-/V2 H N Wong · Y S Tsui 13 258.0 4-1/2
10 10 BIG BULLY Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · D J Hall 14 27.0 5-3/4
11 6 SPICY REALLY B K Teetan · F C Lor 1 6.4 7-1/4
12 5 PLEASANT GUY Led early K C Leung · L Ho 7 39.0 9-3/4
13 2 SPEEDY MISSILE B-/P1/TT1 M L Yeung · K H Ting 12 114.0 11-3/4
14 14 MY DEAR B2/TT M Chadwick · C W Chang 11 176.0 17-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SOCCER MASTER2. LIVERBIRD STAR+1L3. KWAI CHUNG ELITE+2L4. HURRICANE HUNTER+3L5. HUMBLE STEED+3.25L6. BLAZING PARTNERS+3.5L7. GLORIAM+3.75L8. GOLDEN CANNON+4.5L9. MONEY WINNER+4.5L10. BIG BULLY+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick HURRICANE HUNTER (24.3%) finished 4th — the winner SOCCER MASTER was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 HURRICANE HUNTER 24.3% 4.11 4
2 4 LIVERBIRD STAR 18.0% 5.57 2
3 6 SPICY REALLY 12.6% 7.94 11
4 8 KWAI CHUNG ELITE 9.1% 10.93 3
5 11 GOLDEN CANNON 8.2% 12.14 8
6 3 BLAZING PARTNERS 4.8% 20.89 6
7 10 BIG BULLY 4.5% 22.32 10
8 13 SOCCER MASTER 3.9% 25.32 1
9 5 PLEASANT GUY 3.5% 28.43 12
10 14 MY DEAR 2.7% 37.68 14
11 2 SPEEDY MISSILE 2.6% 38.18 13
12 9 GLORIAM 2.6% 38.48 7
13 7 HUMBLE STEED 1.8% 55.85 5
14 12 MONEY WINNER 1.3% 75.37 9
HURRICANE HUNTERLIVERBIRD STARSPICY REALLYKWAI CHUNG ELITEGOLDEN CANNONBLAZING PARTNERSBIG BULLYSOCCER MASTER — wonPLEASANT GUYMY DEARSPEEDY MISSILEGLORIAMHUMBLE STEEDMONEY WINNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 118.5

PLACE

4 19

8 30.5

13 29

QUINELLA

4,13 276

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 100

4,13 81.5

8,13 185.5

TIERCE

13,4,8 5,190

TRIO

4,8,13 866

FIRST 4

1,4,8,13 518

QUARTET

13,4,8,1 18,799

3 PICK 1

A3 36.5

A2

A1