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Sha Tin · 2020-03-29

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-29 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. WAR OF COURAGE, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with VALIANT DREAM second and LARSON third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 WAR OF COURAGE 0.56.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K L Man 12 2.5 SH
2 6 VALIANT DREAM B Shinn · K W Lui 10 7.7 SH
3 8 LARSON CP K Teetan · J Moore 1 7.4 1-3/4
4 2 HEART CONQUERED XB C Wong · R Gibson 14 10.0 2-1/2
5 5 MIG ENERGY TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 3 36.0 2-3/4
6 4 ALLIED AGILITY H/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 2 9.6 3-3/4
7 9 WHISKEY NEAT B/TT K C Leung · C Fownes 11 289.0 4-1/4
8 10 FRUSTRATED B- M F Poon · F C Lor 7 50.0 4-1/2
9 14 DIAMOND PEGASUS B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 9 98.0 8-3/4
10 12 CORRIENTHES SR1 G van Niekerk · D E Ferraris 8 67.0 9-1/2
11 7 GRATEFUL HEART CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 4 3.8 9-3/4
12 1 STANLEY PARK H T H So · L Ho 13 223.0 11-1/2
13 3 HELAKU KNIGHT CP/H1/XB1 N Callan · J Moore 6 293.0 13
14 11 LUCKY PUZZLE SR V Borges · Y S Tsui 5 180.0 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WAR OF COURAGE2. VALIANT DREAM+0.1L3. LARSON+1.75L4. HEART CONQUERED+2.5L5. MIG ENERGY+2.75L6. ALLIED AGILITY+3.75L7. WHISKEY NEAT+4.25L8. FRUSTRATED+4.5L9. DIAMOND PEGASUS+8.75L10. CORRIENTHES+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick WAR OF COURAGE (24.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 WAR OF COURAGE 24.1% 4.15 1
2 4 ALLIED AGILITY 20.4% 4.91 6
3 7 GRATEFUL HEART 12.9% 7.73 11
4 8 LARSON 10.6% 9.44 3
5 6 VALIANT DREAM 10.4% 9.61 2
6 5 MIG ENERGY 6.9% 14.44 5
7 2 HEART CONQUERED 6.5% 15.27 4
8 10 FRUSTRATED 2.8% 35.21 8
9 14 DIAMOND PEGASUS 1.5% 65.02 9
10 12 CORRIENTHES 1.4% 72.97 10
11 9 WHISKEY NEAT 0.9% 106.50 7
12 3 HELAKU KNIGHT 0.6% 177.33 13
13 1 STANLEY PARK 0.5% 207.22 12
14 11 LUCKY PUZZLE 0.4% 236.32 14
WAR OF COURAGE — wonALLIED AGILITYGRATEFUL HEARTLARSONVALIANT DREAMMIG ENERGYHEART CONQUEREDFRUSTRATEDDIAMOND PEGASUSCORRIENTHESWHISKEY NEATHELAKU KNIGHTSTANLEY PARKLUCKY PUZZLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 25.5

PLACE

6 21.5

8 22

13 13

QUINELLA

6,13 100.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 71.5

6,13 40

8,13 36.5

TIERCE

13,6,8 638

TRIO

6,8,13 170

FIRST 4

2,6,8,13 272

QUARTET

13,6,8,2 4,037

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,13/6,8,13 2,894

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 15

A2

A3

6TH DOUBLE

1/6 47.5

1/13 59