Sha Tin · 2020-04-12
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-12 was Griffin over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SUNNY STAR, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 2-1/4, with SMILING FACE second and CHANCHENG PRINCE third. The 2.2 favourite SMILING FACE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SUNNY STAR TT1 0.58.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 6.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 4 | SMILING FACE B1/XB1 J Moreira · D J Whyte | J Moreira | D J Whyte | 2 | 2.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 1 | CHANCHENG PRINCE V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 1 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | SEA MONARCH TT1 K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 4 | 4.2 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 | LIKE THAT B1 Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 3 | 3.4 | 5 |
| 6 | 2 | NOBLE SOUL CP1 N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 6 | 42.0 | 15-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SMILING FACE | 38.3% | 2.61 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | LIKE THAT | 28.2% | 3.55 | 5 |
| 3 | 3 | SEA MONARCH | 12.3% | 8.15 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 | SUNNY STAR | 9.0% | 11.07 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 | NOBLE SOUL | 6.7% | 14.95 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | CHANCHENG PRINCE | 5.6% | 17.88 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 65.5
PLACE
4 14
5 30.5
QUINELLA
4,5 72.5
TIERCE
5,4,1 1,492
TRIO
1,4,5 252
FIRST 4
1,3,4,5 97
QUARTET
5,4,1,3 3,313