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Sha Tin · 2020-04-12

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.52
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 1.09.52 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C W Chang 10 7.3 1-1/4
2 0 HARD PROMISE N Callan · T P Yung 12 42.0 1-1/4
3 0 CHEVALIER PRINCE H1 M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 46.0 1-1/2
4 0 COLONEL Z Purton · P F Yiu 3 1.5 1-1/2
5 0 HAPPILY FRIENDS C Schofield · K H Ting 1 14.0 2-1/4
6 0 BREEZE OF SPRING CP B Shinn · L Ho 11 8.1 2-1/4
7 0 SPEEDY DRAGON V Borges · D J Hall 7 22.0 3-1/4
8 0 SKYEY SUPREME B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 37.0 3-1/2
9 0 SUPER EIGHTEEN B C Wong · A T Millard 2 37.0 4
10 0 UNIVERSAL CROWN XB1 J Moreira · D J Whyte 4 14.0 6
11 0 XIANG LAN QI K C Leung · K L Man 9 212.0 6-1/4
12 0 VICTORY FOR ALL B A Hamelin · Y S Tsui 8 31.0 6-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C W Chang, won by 1-1/4, with HARD PROMISE second and CHEVALIER PRINCE third. The 1.5 favourite COLONEL finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE—2. HARD PROMISE+1.25L3. CHEVALIER PRINCE+1.5L4. COLONEL+1.5L5. HAPPILY FRIENDS+2.25L6. BREEZE OF SPRING+2.25L7. SPEEDY DRAGON+3.25L8. SKYEY SUPREME+3.5L9. SUPER EIGHTEEN+4L10. UNIVERSAL CROWN+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick COLONEL (26.0%) finished 4th — the winner PRESIDENT'S CHOICE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 COLONEL 26.0% 3.84 4
2 0 UNIVERSAL CROWN 14.2% 7.06 10
3 0 HAPPILY FRIENDS 13.1% 7.63 5
4 0 BREEZE OF SPRING 11.2% 8.90 6
5 0 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 9.0% 11.11 1
6 0 SKYEY SUPREME 8.1% 12.35 8
7 0 CHEVALIER PRINCE 5.9% 16.89 3
8 0 VICTORY FOR ALL 4.2% 23.54 12
9 0 SPEEDY DRAGON 2.5% 39.76 7
10 0 HARD PROMISE 2.5% 40.32 2
11 0 SUPER EIGHTEEN 2.1% 46.92 9
12 0 XIANG LAN QI 1.1% 91.40 11
COLONELUNIVERSAL CROWNHAPPILY FRIENDSBREEZE OF SPRINGPRESIDENT'S CHOICE — wonSKYEY SUPREMECHEVALIER PRINCEVICTORY FOR ALLSPEEDY DRAGONHARD PROMISESUPER EIGHTEENXIANG LAN QI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 73.5

PLACE

1 17

3 69

6 94

QUINELLA

1,3 2,036.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 348.5

1,6 416.5

3,6 1,235

TIERCE

1,3,6 90,810

TRIO

1,3,6 12,908

FIRST 4

1,3,5,6 2,829

QUARTET

1,3,6,5 177,920

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 13

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

12/1 342

12/3 584