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Sha Tin · 2020-04-12

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1800m Course C 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-12 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. MCMUNIGAL, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won by 2-1/4, with VICTORIOUS SEEKER second and FORTUNE PATROL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite VICTORIOUS SEEKER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.47.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 MCMUNIGAL Closed strongly B/TT 1.47.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall 5 4.9 2-1/4
2 3 VICTORIOUS SEEKER Closed strongly B J Moreira · P O'Sullivan 6 3.1 2-1/4
3 4 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/XB K Teetan · A T Millard 11 11.0 4-3/4
4 6 AEROFLASH Closed strongly CP C Schofield · J Moore 7 13.0 5-1/2
5 12 WICKER B C Wong · R Gibson 2 15.0 6
6 7 MASTER ROMAN Closed strongly E1 N Callan · W Y So 12 45.0 6-1/4
7 10 GOLDEN GENERAL Closed strongly CP H N Wong · K H Ting 14 103.0 6-1/4
8 8 CHIU CHOW KID V/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 4 33.0 6-1/2
9 11 REEVE'S MUNTJAC Closed strongly B/XB/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 1 17.0 7-1/4
10 14 MONEY MARSHAL Led early B/XB1 M L Yeung · D E Ferraris 3 23.0 7-3/4
11 2 GOLDEN KID B M Chadwick · K W Lui 10 20.0 8-3/4
12 9 SKY GEM P-/V2/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 13 20.0 10-1/4
13 13 LITTLE ISLAND V-/B2 K H Chan · K L Man 8 181.0 14
14 1 AMAZING AGILITY SR/TT Z Purton · L Ho 9 5.0 52-1/4
0 ROMANTIC JOURNEY · C W Chang
0 CHAPARRAL STAR · C Fownes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MCMUNIGAL2. VICTORIOUS SEEKER+2.25L3. FORTUNE PATROL+4.75L4. AEROFLASH+5.5L5. WICKER+6L6. MASTER ROMAN+6.25L7. GOLDEN GENERAL+6.25L8. CHIU CHOW KID+6.5L9. REEVE'S MUNTJAC+7.25L10. MONEY MARSHAL+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick VICTORIOUS SEEKER (27.6%) finished 2nd — the winner MCMUNIGAL was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 VICTORIOUS SEEKER 27.6% 3.62 2
2 9 SKY GEM 11.6% 8.65 12
3 12 WICKER 11.6% 8.66 5
4 1 AMAZING AGILITY 10.0% 10.04 14
5 5 MCMUNIGAL 7.6% 13.23 1
6 8 CHIU CHOW KID 6.0% 16.66 8
7 4 FORTUNE PATROL 5.0% 20.00 3
8 11 REEVE'S MUNTJAC 4.3% 23.44 9
9 6 AEROFLASH 4.3% 23.49 4
10 7 MASTER ROMAN 3.4% 29.05 6
11 2 GOLDEN KID 3.2% 31.24 11
12 14 MONEY MARSHAL 3.0% 33.32 10
13 13 LITTLE ISLAND 1.4% 72.13 13
14 10 GOLDEN GENERAL 1.2% 82.03 7
VICTORIOUS SEEKERSKY GEMWICKERAMAZING AGILITYMCMUNIGAL — wonCHIU CHOW KIDFORTUNE PATROLREEVE'S MUNTJACAEROFLASHMASTER ROMANGOLDEN KIDMONEY MARSHALLITTLE ISLANDGOLDEN GENERAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 49

PLACE

3 13.5

4 31

5 18.5

QUINELLA

3,5 85.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 67

3,5 39.5

4,5 117

TIERCE

5,3,4 1,315

TRIO

3,4,5 183

FIRST 4

3,4,5,6 821

QUARTET

5,3,4,6 17,606

2ND DOUBLE

6/3 176.5

6/5 1,881.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 28

A3

A1