沙田 · 2020-04-12
第 3場
2020-04-12沙田第3場，Class 5，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD。由M F Poon策騎、D J Hall訓練的MCMUNIGAL勝出，贏出2-1/4。VICTORIOUS SEEKER獲得亞軍；FORTUNE PATROL獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.1倍大熱門VICTORIOUS SEEKER跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | MCMUNIGAL 後段發力 B/TT 1.47.75 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 4.9 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 3 | VICTORIOUS SEEKER 後段發力 B J Moreira · P O'Sullivan | J Moreira | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 3.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | FORTUNE PATROL 後段發力 B/XB K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 11 | 11.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | AEROFLASH 後段發力 CP C Schofield · J Moore | C Schofield | J Moore | 7 | 13.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | WICKER B C Wong · R Gibson | C Wong | R Gibson | 2 | 15.0 | 6 |
| 6 | 7 | MASTER ROMAN 後段發力 E1 N Callan · W Y So | N Callan | W Y So | 12 | 45.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | GOLDEN GENERAL 後段發力 CP H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 14 | 103.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | CHIU CHOW KID V/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 4 | 33.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | REEVE'S MUNTJAC 後段發力 B/XB/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 1 | 17.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 14 | MONEY MARSHAL 早段領放 B/XB1 M L Yeung · D E Ferraris | M L Yeung | D E Ferraris | 3 | 23.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | GOLDEN KID B M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 10 | 20.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | SKY GEM P-/V2/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 13 | 20.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 13 | 13 | LITTLE ISLAND V-/B2 K H Chan · K L Man | K H Chan | K L Man | 8 | 181.0 | 14 |
| 14 | 1 | AMAZING AGILITY SR/TT Z Purton · L Ho | Z Purton | L Ho | 9 | 5.0 | 52-1/4 |
| — | 0 | ROMANTIC JOURNEY · C W Chang | — | C W Chang | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | CHAPARRAL STAR · C Fownes | — | C Fownes | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | VICTORIOUS SEEKER | 27.6% | 3.62 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | SKY GEM | 11.6% | 8.65 | 12 |
| 3 | 12 | WICKER | 11.6% | 8.66 | 5 |
| 4 | 1 | AMAZING AGILITY | 10.0% | 10.04 | 14 |
| 5 | 5 | MCMUNIGAL | 7.6% | 13.23 | 1 |
| 6 | 8 | CHIU CHOW KID | 6.0% | 16.66 | 8 |
| 7 | 4 | FORTUNE PATROL | 5.0% | 20.00 | 3 |
| 8 | 11 | REEVE'S MUNTJAC | 4.3% | 23.44 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | AEROFLASH | 4.3% | 23.49 | 4 |
| 10 | 7 | MASTER ROMAN | 3.4% | 29.05 | 6 |
| 11 | 2 | GOLDEN KID | 3.2% | 31.24 | 11 |
| 12 | 14 | MONEY MARSHAL | 3.0% | 33.32 | 10 |
| 13 | 13 | LITTLE ISLAND | 1.4% | 72.13 | 13 |
| 14 | 10 | GOLDEN GENERAL | 1.2% | 82.03 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 49
PLACE
3 13.5
4 31
5 18.5
QUINELLA
3,5 85.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 67
3,5 39.5
4,5 117
TIERCE
5,3,4 1,315
TRIO
3,4,5 183
FIRST 4
3,4,5,6 821
QUARTET
5,3,4,6 17,606
2ND DOUBLE
6/3 176.5
6/5 1,881.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 28
A3 —
A1 —