沙田 · 2020-04-12
第 5場
2020-04-12沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的LEADING FORTUNE勝出，贏出SH。PARTY GENIUS獲得亞軍；STUNNING IMPACT獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.0倍大熱門PARTY GENIUS跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | LEADING FORTUNE 後段發力 B 1.22.16 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 10 | 6.4 | SH |
| 2 | 5 | PARTY GENIUS 後段發力 XB Z Purton · D J Whyte | Z Purton | D J Whyte | 12 | 3.0 | SH |
| 3 | 10 | STUNNING IMPACT 後段發力 B1 K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 12.0 | N |
| 4 | 6 | BULLETPROOF 後段發力 M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 1 | 32.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | CIRCUIT HASSLER 後段發力 B/H/TT B Shinn · A S Cruz | B Shinn | A S Cruz | 9 | 6.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | HAPPY FORCE 早段領放 B M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 13 | 27.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 14 | IRON KING 後段發力 H M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 6 | 7.2 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | SPICY GRILL 後段發力 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 43.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | MOON PEAKS B/TT H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 11 | 79.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 8 | REGENCY MASTER 後段發力 TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 8 | 20.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 13 | SMILING SUCCESS B/TT C Wong · K H Ting | C Wong | K H Ting | 4 | 12.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 2 | LORIZ V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 14 | 11.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 13 | 4 | HINYUEN SWIFTNESS B/TT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 5 | 30.0 | 16 |
| 14 | 7 | READY CONQUEROR B A Hamelin · Y S Tsui | A Hamelin | Y S Tsui | 2 | 94.0 | 16-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | LEADING FORTUNE | 23.1% | 4.32 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | PARTY GENIUS | 16.1% | 6.21 | 2 |
| 3 | 13 | SMILING SUCCESS | 11.8% | 8.46 | 11 |
| 4 | 2 | LORIZ | 10.1% | 9.90 | 12 |
| 5 | 14 | IRON KING | 7.5% | 13.41 | 7 |
| 6 | 11 | MOON PEAKS | 5.2% | 19.15 | 9 |
| 7 | 3 | CIRCUIT HASSLER | 5.2% | 19.32 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | READY CONQUEROR | 4.4% | 22.95 | 14 |
| 9 | 8 | REGENCY MASTER | 4.3% | 23.09 | 10 |
| 10 | 4 | HINYUEN SWIFTNESS | 4.2% | 23.53 | 13 |
| 11 | 1 | HAPPY FORCE | 2.8% | 35.64 | 6 |
| 12 | 6 | BULLETPROOF | 2.5% | 39.42 | 4 |
| 13 | 9 | SPICY GRILL | 1.5% | 66.58 | 8 |
| 14 | 10 | STUNNING IMPACT | 1.2% | 83.07 | 3 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 64
PLACE
5 13.5
10 32.5
12 21
QUINELLA
5,12 138.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,10 122
5,12 60.5
10,12 95.5
TIERCE
12,5,10 2,052
TRIO
5,10,12 572
FIRST 4
5,6,10,12 1,907
QUARTET
12,5,10,6 32,026
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,5,6,7/5,10,12 26,112
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 20.5
A3 —
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
2,6,7/5 16.5
2,6,7/12 135.5