沙田 · 2020-04-12
第 11場
2020-04-12沙田第11場，Class 2，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由K Teetan策騎、K H Ting訓練的BALLISTIC KING勝出，贏出1-1/4。BEAUTY LEGACY獲得亞軍；DECRYPT獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.1倍大熱門STAR SHINE跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | BALLISTIC KING 後段發力 1.20.74 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 3 | 7.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | BEAUTY LEGACY 後段發力 H-/E1/TT- J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 5 | 4.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | DECRYPT 後段發力 H/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 10 | 4.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | STAR SHINE 後段發力 TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 4.1 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | GENERAL'S DELIGHT 後段發力 XB M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 9 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | DRAGON GENERAL TT V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 1 | 40.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 13 | ALL IN MIND H/XB/TT H N Wong · A S Cruz | H N Wong | A S Cruz | 11 | 28.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE 後段發力 B/TT N Callan · W Y So | N Callan | W Y So | 2 | 34.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | LOBO'S LEGEND 後段發力 K C Leung · D E Ferraris | K C Leung | D E Ferraris | 13 | 31.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | GOOD STANDING B/XB B Shinn · J Moore | B Shinn | J Moore | 6 | 27.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | PERFECT MATCH 早段領放 B/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum | A Hamelin | C S Shum | 7 | 7.5 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | SUPER STAR H W Lai · A T Millard | H W Lai | A T Millard | 12 | 80.0 | 9 |
| 13 | 7 | GREEN LUCK B/H C Wong · C Fownes | C Wong | C Fownes | 8 | 132.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 14 | 9 | JOYFUL UNION CP1 M F Poon · T P Yung | M F Poon | T P Yung | 14 | 112.0 | 11-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BEAUTY LEGACY | 16.4% | 6.11 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | PERFECT MATCH | 14.9% | 6.72 | 11 |
| 3 | 3 | DECRYPT | 12.8% | 7.81 | 3 |
| 4 | 14 | BALLISTIC KING | 10.5% | 9.50 | 1 |
| 5 | 13 | ALL IN MIND | 6.9% | 14.59 | 7 |
| 6 | 6 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 6.0% | 16.68 | 8 |
| 7 | 8 | STAR SHINE | 5.6% | 17.72 | 4 |
| 8 | 11 | GENERAL'S DELIGHT | 5.3% | 18.95 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | SUPER STAR | 5.1% | 19.53 | 12 |
| 10 | 9 | JOYFUL UNION | 5.1% | 19.77 | 14 |
| 11 | 7 | GREEN LUCK | 4.1% | 24.62 | 13 |
| 12 | 5 | DRAGON GENERAL | 3.2% | 31.00 | 6 |
| 13 | 12 | LOBO'S LEGEND | 2.6% | 38.79 | 9 |
| 14 | 2 | GOOD STANDING | 1.6% | 62.35 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
14 76.5
PLACE
1 20
3 16.5
14 24.5
QUINELLA
1,14 249.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 36.5
1,14 87
3,14 68.5
TIERCE
14,1,3 2,596
TRIO
1,3,14 291
FIRST 4
1,3,8,14 348
QUARTET
14,1,3,8 11,251
10TH DOUBLE
13/1 16.5
13/14 270.5
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 31.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,11,13/1,3,14 7,189
SIX UP
1,3/8,13/8,10/5,7/2,13/1,14 8,243
1/13/10/5/13/14 1,109,958
2 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
5/13/1 259
5/13/14 4,416