Happy Valley · 2020-04-22
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2020-04-22 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. WE THE SOUTH, ridden by V Borges and trained by J Moore, won by HD, with FARM BUMPER second and DAILY DELIGHT third. The 2.8 favourite WINNING WAYS finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | WE THE SOUTH B-/H1/XB1/TT- 0.57.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · J Moore | V Borges | J Moore | 5 | 29.0 | HD |
| 2 | 9 | FARM BUMPER C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 2 | 4.0 | HD |
| 3 | 7 | DAILY DELIGHT XB B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 10 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | GOKO B/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 1 | 9.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | WINNING WAYS H/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 4 | 2.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | LOOK ERAS B-/CP1/TT- C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 6 | 9.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 1 | MEHBOOB XB M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 8.7 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | FORTUNE HERO T H So · D J Hall | T H So | D J Hall | 12 | 230.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 12 | GOUTEN OF GARO B2/TT M L Yeung · D E Ferraris | M L Yeung | D E Ferraris | 3 | 26.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | DIAMOND PEGASUS B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 11 | 79.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | ISLAND WINNER TT C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 7 | 12.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 4 | BEAUT BEAUT H/V2 M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 9 | 54.0 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | FARM BUMPER | 26.8% | 3.74 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | WINNING WAYS | 25.7% | 3.89 | 5 |
| 3 | 1 | MEHBOOB | 18.5% | 5.41 | 7 |
| 4 | 3 | GOKO | 7.3% | 13.73 | 4 |
| 5 | 11 | LOOK ERAS | 6.9% | 14.49 | 6 |
| 6 | 7 | DAILY DELIGHT | 3.9% | 25.34 | 3 |
| 7 | 10 | ISLAND WINNER | 3.2% | 31.44 | 11 |
| 8 | 12 | GOUTEN OF GARO | 2.1% | 48.61 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | FORTUNE HERO | 1.7% | 57.93 | 8 |
| 10 | 2 | DIAMOND PEGASUS | 1.7% | 59.71 | 10 |
| 11 | 4 | BEAUT BEAUT | 1.4% | 70.58 | 12 |
| 12 | 8 | WE THE SOUTH | 0.9% | 113.64 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 297.5
PLACE
7 36.5
8 58
9 15
QUINELLA
8,9 616
QUINELLA PLACE
7,8 447.5
7,9 82
8,9 168.5
TIERCE
8,9,7 16,594
TRIO
7,8,9 1,752
FIRST 4
3,7,8,9 4,708
QUARTET
8,9,7,3 152,094
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,8,9/7,8,9 1,425,985
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 36
A1 —
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
9/8 2,832.5
9/9 28