Happy Valley · 2020-06-03
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-06-03 was Class 3 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY HAPPY, ridden by V Borges and trained by J Moore, won by 2-1/2, with VINCY second and GOLDEN SPECTRUM third. The winner led throughout. The 3.4 favourite VINCY finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | BEAUTY HAPPY Wire to wire B 2.18.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · J Moore | V Borges | J Moore | 1 | 6.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | VINCY Closed strongly XB/TT Z Purton · D J Whyte | Z Purton | D J Whyte | 8 | 3.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | GOLDEN SPECTRUM CP/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 5 | 5.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | CLEMENT LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT C Schofield · C S Shum | C Schofield | C S Shum | 4 | 23.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | METHANE B-/CP1 K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 6 | 4.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | BLASTOISE Closed strongly SR A Hamelin · D E Ferraris | A Hamelin | D E Ferraris | 7 | 7.9 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | MAGNETISM B/TT K C Leung · D E Ferraris | K C Leung | D E Ferraris | 2 | 37.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | TANGMERE TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 8.1 | 6 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | GOLDEN SPECTRUM | 29.5% | 3.39 | 3 |
| 2 | 8 | METHANE | 21.6% | 4.63 | 5 |
| 3 | 5 | TANGMERE | 13.4% | 7.46 | 8 |
| 4 | 3 | BLASTOISE | 13.1% | 7.61 | 6 |
| 5 | 2 | VINCY | 10.4% | 9.57 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | BEAUTY HAPPY | 5.5% | 18.15 | 1 |
| 7 | 7 | MAGNETISM | 3.4% | 29.83 | 7 |
| 8 | 4 | CLEMENT LEGEND | 3.1% | 32.65 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 65.5
PLACE
1 17
2 16
6 17
QUINELLA
2,6 116
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 41.5
1,6 56
2,6 39.5
TIERCE
6,2,1 815
TRIO
1,2,6 112
FIRST 4
1,2,4,6 379
QUARTET
6,2,1,4 7,674
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 17.5
A1 —