Happy Valley · 2020-06-03
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2020-06-03 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HIGHLAND FORTUNE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with FANTASY second and ISLAND SHINE third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE 1.09.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 4 | 2.9 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | FANTASY B/TT J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 11 | 7.7 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | ISLAND SHINE B A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 3 | 6.4 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | SMART LEADER B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 8 | 9.6 | 1 |
| 5 | 10 | BIG FORTUNE B/XB T H So · D J Whyte | T H So | D J Whyte | 5 | 8.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | JUMBO HAPPINESS B C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 7 | 17.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | GRADE ONE B V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 18.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | HARDLY SWEARS H M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 10 | 9.3 | 5 |
| 9 | 11 | SEVENTH SEA SR H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 9 | 22.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 4 | SHOUSON B K H Chan · J Moore | K H Chan | J Moore | 12 | 26.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | VERY SWEET ORANGE V- H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 1 | 17.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 12 | KUNG FU FIGHTER M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 2 | 59.0 | 12-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | FANTASY | 30.7% | 3.26 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | ISLAND SHINE | 18.4% | 5.44 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | HIGHLAND FORTUNE | 11.6% | 8.61 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | SMART LEADER | 9.6% | 10.46 | 4 |
| 5 | 6 | HARDLY SWEARS | 6.6% | 15.10 | 8 |
| 6 | 9 | GRADE ONE | 5.7% | 17.65 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | SHOUSON | 4.9% | 20.61 | 10 |
| 8 | 8 | VERY SWEET ORANGE | 4.8% | 20.79 | 11 |
| 9 | 2 | JUMBO HAPPINESS | 2.7% | 36.48 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | BIG FORTUNE | 2.6% | 38.88 | 5 |
| 11 | 12 | KUNG FU FIGHTER | 1.3% | 76.16 | 12 |
| 12 | 11 | SEVENTH SEA | 1.2% | 85.87 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 29.5
PLACE
1 27
5 19
7 15
QUINELLA
1,7 133.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 102.5
1,7 55
5,7 43.5
TIERCE
7,1,5 1,036
TRIO
1,5,7 276
FIRST 4
1,3,5,7 362
QUARTET
7,1,5,3 5,693
3 PICK 1
A1 20.5
A2 —
A3 —
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,8/1,5,7 112,585
8TH DOUBLE
8/1 960.5
8/7 2,899
SIX UP
1,11/4,12/2,9/1,6/1,8/1,7 34,789
5 [C Y Ho] —
TREBLE
6/8/1 10,655
6/8/7 14,106