Happy Valley · 2020-06-03
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-06-03 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TOP MILITARY, ridden by T H So and trained by T P Yung, won by 3/4, with SKY SHOW second and THIS IS CHARISMA third. The 1.6 favourite SKY SHOW finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | TOP MILITARY B1 1.09.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) T H So · T P Yung | T H So | T P Yung | 2 | 284.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | SKY SHOW Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 5 | 1.6 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 9 | THIS IS CHARISMA B/H K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 4 | 14.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | DESTINE JEWELLERY V A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 1 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | DECISIVE TWELVE C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 10 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | SPLIT OF A SECOND H M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 11 | 24.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | SPRINT FORWARD CP-/XB/B2/TT J Moreira · J Moore | J Moreira | J Moore | 8 | 7.6 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | NOBLE CONSORT B/TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 12 | 267.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 10 | SKY TREASURE H H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 3 | 9.2 | 4 |
| 10 | 8 | JOLLY CONVERGENCE B N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 6 | 20.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 7 | ROMAN IMPERO V1 K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 7 | 22.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 12 | SWEETLY BABY H/TT C Wong · C Fownes | C Wong | C Fownes | 9 | 42.0 | 4-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SKY SHOW | 26.7% | 3.74 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | SPRINT FORWARD | 23.9% | 4.19 | 7 |
| 3 | 3 | DECISIVE TWELVE | 12.5% | 8.01 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 8.5% | 11.79 | 4 |
| 5 | 9 | THIS IS CHARISMA | 8.2% | 12.26 | 3 |
| 6 | 10 | SKY TREASURE | 6.5% | 15.40 | 9 |
| 7 | 8 | JOLLY CONVERGENCE | 4.4% | 22.86 | 10 |
| 8 | 2 | SPLIT OF A SECOND | 3.4% | 29.08 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 | ROMAN IMPERO | 2.4% | 41.69 | 11 |
| 10 | 12 | SWEETLY BABY | 2.1% | 48.12 | 12 |
| 11 | 11 | TOP MILITARY | 0.8% | 123.38 | 1 |
| 12 | 6 | NOBLE CONSORT | 0.7% | 143.15 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 2,845.5
PLACE
1 12.5
9 29
11 339
QUINELLA
1,11 2,012
QUINELLA PLACE
1,9 52
1,11 650
9,11 2,027.5
TIERCE
11,1,9 61,934
TRIO
1,9,11 4,567
FIRST 4
1,5,9,11 6,165
QUARTET
11,1,9,5 269,424
3 PICK 1
A3 27.5
A2 —
A1 —
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
8/1 44
8/11 12,311.5