Happy Valley · 2020-06-03
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2020-06-03 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. LIGHTNING STEED, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with LUCKY MISSILE second and INCANTO PREPARED third. The winner led throughout. The 3.2 favourite COURAGEOUS DRAGON finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LIGHTNING STEED Wire to wire TT 1.40.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 11 | 5.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 12 | LUCKY MISSILE Closed strongly M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 4 | 29.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 9 | INCANTO PREPARED Closed strongly E/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 3 | 19.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/P/TT C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 8 | 20.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON B/TT J Moreira · W Y So | J Moreira | W Y So | 1 | 3.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | GO BALLISTIC SR/TT1 A Hamelin · D E Ferraris | A Hamelin | D E Ferraris | 6 | 6.6 | 3 |
| 7 | 3 | BIG BANG BONG Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 5 | 8.6 | 3 |
| 8 | 11 | HUMBLE STEED Closed strongly K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 12 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | BLOOMING SPIRIT B/TT N Callan · F C Lor | N Callan | F C Lor | 2 | 6.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | LASTING FRIENDSHIP H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 46.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | BEST FOR YOU B H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 7 | 35.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | STARLIGHT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 10 | 49.0 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON | 36.9% | 2.71 | 5 |
| 2 | 4 | LIGHTNING STEED | 9.6% | 10.47 | 1 |
| 3 | 9 | INCANTO PREPARED | 8.2% | 12.25 | 3 |
| 4 | 11 | HUMBLE STEED | 8.1% | 12.29 | 8 |
| 5 | 7 | BLOOMING SPIRIT | 8.0% | 12.51 | 9 |
| 6 | 8 | GO BALLISTIC | 7.2% | 13.90 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | BIG BANG BONG | 6.9% | 14.56 | 7 |
| 8 | 6 | BEST FOR YOU | 3.8% | 26.03 | 11 |
| 9 | 1 | RIGHT HONOURABLE | 3.5% | 28.73 | 4 |
| 10 | 2 | LASTING FRIENDSHIP | 3.5% | 28.80 | 10 |
| 11 | 5 | STARLIGHT | 2.5% | 40.34 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 | LUCKY MISSILE | 1.9% | 51.48 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 55
PLACE
4 19
9 45
12 62
QUINELLA
4,12 610
QUINELLA PLACE
4,9 168.5
4,12 180
9,12 548.5
TIERCE
4,12,9 16,695
TRIO
4,9,12 4,034
FIRST 4
1,4,9,12 11,184
QUARTET
4,12,9,1 236,223
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,9,11/F 2,321
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 23
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
11/4 37,801
11/12 7,115.5