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Happy Valley · 2020-06-03

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course A 11 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2020-06-03 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. DIVINE UNICORN, ridden by T H So and trained by W Y So, won by SH, with SUNSHINE WARRIOR second and FLASH FAMOUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite RICH AND LUCKY finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.39.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 DIVINE UNICORN Closed strongly TT 1.39.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) T H So · W Y So 4 53.0 SH
2 1 SUNSHINE WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz 1 6.5 SH
3 3 FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · F C Lor 11 10.0 3/4
4 2 NAMJONG PLUS Closed strongly M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 7 32.0 1
5 5 BEST ALLIANCE XB A Hamelin · D J Whyte 2 4.2 1-1/2
6 6 CHARIZARD Closed strongly TT K C Leung · D E Ferraris 9 21.0 2
7 10 CHARITY WINGS Closed strongly B K Teetan · C S Shum 6 13.0 2-1/4
7 11 THUNDER STOMP Led early B C Wong · Y S Tsui 8 28.0 2-1/4
9 7 ULTIMATE GLORY V H W Lai · K L Man 5 39.0 2-1/4
10 9 RICH AND LUCKY XB Z Purton · L Ho 3 2.1 3-3/4
11 4 TOP SCORE B/TT M F Poon · K W Lui 10 62.0 7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DIVINE UNICORN2. SUNSHINE WARRIOR+0.1L3. FLASH FAMOUS+0.75L4. NAMJONG PLUS+1L5. BEST ALLIANCE+1.5L6. CHARIZARD+2L7. CHARITY WINGS+2.25L7. THUNDER STOMP+2.25L9. ULTIMATE GLORY+2.25L10. RICH AND LUCKY+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick RICH AND LUCKY (37.0%) finished 10th — the winner DIVINE UNICORN was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 RICH AND LUCKY 37.0% 2.70 10
2 5 BEST ALLIANCE 15.0% 6.69 5
3 3 FLASH FAMOUS 12.1% 8.24 3
4 1 SUNSHINE WARRIOR 11.4% 8.79 2
5 10 CHARITY WINGS 9.2% 10.83 7
6 11 THUNDER STOMP 3.2% 31.71 7
7 2 NAMJONG PLUS 3.1% 32.02 4
8 4 TOP SCORE 3.0% 33.09 11
9 6 CHARIZARD 2.5% 39.68 6
10 7 ULTIMATE GLORY 2.1% 47.50 9
11 8 DIVINE UNICORN 1.4% 71.12 1
RICH AND LUCKYBEST ALLIANCEFLASH FAMOUSSUNSHINE WARRIORCHARITY WINGSTHUNDER STOMPNAMJONG PLUSTOP SCORECHARIZARDULTIMATE GLORYDIVINE UNICORN — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 535.5

PLACE

1 20

3 32

8 88.5

QUINELLA

1,8 1,883.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 106

1,8 435

3,8 703.5

TIERCE

8,1,3 28,585

TRIO

1,3,8 4,160

FIRST 4

1,2,3,8 6,103

QUARTET

8,1,3,2 176,004

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 58

A1

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

6/1 139

6/8 3,904.5