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Sha Tin · 2020-06-07

Race 4

Class 5 YIELDING 1800m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.49.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GREAT SMART Closed strongly CP/TT 1.49.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K L Man 1 9.6 SH
2 0 MISTER MONTE CP K H Chan · C W Chang 13 19.0 SH
3 0 CURLING LUXURY Led early C L Chau · Y S Tsui 3 6.7 2-1/4
4 0 SHINEALOT Closed strongly B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 4 17.0 2-1/2
5 0 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/XB/H1 C Schofield · A T Millard 9 7.5 3-1/2
6 0 KING PRINT Closed strongly K Teetan · C H Yip 14 11.0 3-1/2
7 0 LITTLE GENERAL TT2 J Moreira · C S Shum 5 5.2 4-1/4
8 0 JOY MASTER Closed strongly TT B Shinn · C Fownes 12 24.0 4-3/4
9 0 BRING IT ON B-/TT Z Purton · C H Yip 10 5.5 5-3/4
10 0 AMAZING AGILITY SR/TT M F Poon · L Ho 2 19.0 6
11 0 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS Closed strongly C Wong · C W Chang 11 37.0 6-3/4
12 0 GOLDEN GENERAL CP C Y Ho · K H Ting 8 13.0 10
13 0 YOU HAVE MY WORD B2 H N Wong · T P Yung 6 49.0 12-3/4
14 0 YOUNG GLORY B A Hamelin · D E Ferraris 7 23.0 13-1/2
— 0 FANTASTIC BOY K Teetan · W Y So — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-06-07 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on YIELDING going. GREAT SMART, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with MISTER MONTE second and CURLING LUXURY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.2 favourite LITTLE GENERAL finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GREAT SMART—2. MISTER MONTE+0.1L3. CURLING LUXURY+2.25L4. SHINEALOT+2.5L5. FORTUNE PATROL+3.5L6. KING PRINT+3.5L7. LITTLE GENERAL+4.25L8. JOY MASTER+4.75L9. BRING IT ON+5.75L10. AMAZING AGILITY+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick LITTLE GENERAL (25.1%) finished 7th — the winner GREAT SMART was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 LITTLE GENERAL 25.1% 3.98 7
2 0 KING PRINT 10.5% 9.52 6
3 0 GOLDEN GENERAL 8.8% 11.33 12
4 0 BRING IT ON 8.6% 11.67 9
5 0 CURLING LUXURY 7.8% 12.77 3
6 0 FORTUNE PATROL 7.0% 14.23 5
7 0 AMAZING AGILITY 6.3% 15.87 10
8 0 GREAT SMART 5.8% 17.25 1
9 0 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS 5.6% 17.73 11
10 0 YOUNG GLORY 5.0% 19.83 14
11 0 SHINEALOT 3.4% 29.34 4
12 0 MISTER MONTE 2.6% 38.66 2
13 0 JOY MASTER 2.2% 45.43 8
14 0 YOU HAVE MY WORD 1.1% 87.15 13
LITTLE GENERALKING PRINTGOLDEN GENERALBRING IT ONCURLING LUXURYFORTUNE PATROLAMAZING AGILITYGREAT SMART — wonENJOYABLE SUCCESSYOUNG GLORYSHINEALOTMISTER MONTEJOY MASTERYOU HAVE MY WORD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 96

PLACE

1 22

6 63.5

14 33.5

QUINELLA

6,14 1,216

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 214

1,14 117

6,14 359.5

TIERCE

14,6,1 13,906

TRIO

1,6,14 2,297

FIRST 4

1,2,6,14 5,662

QUARTET

14,6,1,2 157,927

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

9,11,12/1,6,14 210,424

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 17.5

A2 —

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE

11/6 232.5

11/14 759