沙田 · 2020-06-07
第 4場
2020-06-07沙田第4場，Class 5，途程1800米，跑道評為YIELDING。由M Chadwick策騎、K L Man訓練的GREAT SMART勝出，贏出SH。MISTER MONTE獲得亞軍；CURLING LUXURY獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。5.2倍大熱門LITTLE GENERAL跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | GREAT SMART 後段發力 CP/TT 1.49.64 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 1 | 9.6 | SH |
| 2 | 6 | MISTER MONTE CP K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 13 | 19.0 | SH |
| 3 | 1 | CURLING LUXURY 早段領放 C L Chau · Y S Tsui | C L Chau | Y S Tsui | 3 | 6.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | SHINEALOT 後段發力 B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 17.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | FORTUNE PATROL 後段發力 B/XB/H1 C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 9 | 7.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | KING PRINT 後段發力 K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 14 | 11.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | LITTLE GENERAL TT2 J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 5 | 5.2 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | JOY MASTER 後段發力 TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 12 | 24.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | BRING IT ON B-/TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 10 | 5.5 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | AMAZING AGILITY SR/TT M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 2 | 19.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 7 | ENJOYABLE SUCCESS 後段發力 C Wong · C W Chang | C Wong | C W Chang | 11 | 37.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | GOLDEN GENERAL CP C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 8 | 13.0 | 10 |
| 13 | 3 | YOU HAVE MY WORD B2 H N Wong · T P Yung | H N Wong | T P Yung | 6 | 49.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 14 | 13 | YOUNG GLORY B A Hamelin · D E Ferraris | A Hamelin | D E Ferraris | 7 | 23.0 | 13-1/2 |
| — | 0 | FANTASTIC BOY K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LITTLE GENERAL | 25.1% | 3.98 | 7 |
| 2 | 4 | KING PRINT | 10.5% | 9.52 | 6 |
| 3 | 12 | GOLDEN GENERAL | 8.8% | 11.33 | 12 |
| 4 | 11 | BRING IT ON | 8.6% | 11.67 | 9 |
| 5 | 1 | CURLING LUXURY | 7.8% | 12.77 | 3 |
| 6 | 10 | FORTUNE PATROL | 7.0% | 14.23 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | AMAZING AGILITY | 6.3% | 15.87 | 10 |
| 8 | 14 | GREAT SMART | 5.8% | 17.25 | 1 |
| 9 | 7 | ENJOYABLE SUCCESS | 5.6% | 17.73 | 11 |
| 10 | 13 | YOUNG GLORY | 5.0% | 19.83 | 14 |
| 11 | 2 | SHINEALOT | 3.4% | 29.34 | 4 |
| 12 | 6 | MISTER MONTE | 2.6% | 38.66 | 2 |
| 13 | 9 | JOY MASTER | 2.2% | 45.43 | 8 |
| 14 | 3 | YOU HAVE MY WORD | 1.1% | 87.15 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
14 96
PLACE
1 22
6 63.5
14 33.5
QUINELLA
6,14 1,216
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 214
1,14 117
6,14 359.5
TIERCE
14,6,1 13,906
TRIO
1,6,14 2,297
FIRST 4
1,2,6,14 5,662
QUARTET
14,6,1,2 157,927
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
9,11,12/1,6,14 210,424
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 17.5
A2 —
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
11/6 232.5
11/14 759