沙田 · 2020-06-07
第 5場
2020-06-07沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1600米，跑道評為YIELDING。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的LEAP OF FAITH勝出，贏出N。TELECOM ROCKET獲得亞軍；HAPPY WIN WIN獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.3倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LEAP OF FAITH 後段發力 1.35.70 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 2 | 3.3 | N |
| 2 | 8 | TELECOM ROCKET 後段發力 CP A Hamelin · Y S Tsui | A Hamelin | Y S Tsui | 12 | 4.9 | N |
| 3 | 12 | HAPPY WIN WIN 後段發力 K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 13 | 9.8 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | EZRA 後段發力 B/XB C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 3 | 8.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 5 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | JADE FORTUNE 後段發力 B Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 6 | 7.1 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | ROYAL RACER V1 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 1 | 10.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | POLYMER LUCK B H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 7 | 74.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT 早段領放 B/TT K C Leung · J Moore | K C Leung | J Moore | 9 | 39.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 6 | JOLLY FOREVER 後段發力 TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 10 | 48.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 3 | SMART COUSIN K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 8 | 70.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 7 | RIGHTEOUS WIN B M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 11 | 70.0 | 14-1/4 |
| 13 | 13 | KA YING BRILLIANCE B-/H/XB/P2 M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 4 | 16.0 | 18-3/4 |
| — | 14 | SANGRIA V Borges · D E Ferraris | V Borges | D E Ferraris | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LEAP OF FAITH | 28.9% | 3.46 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | JADE FORTUNE | 23.7% | 4.22 | 6 |
| 3 | 9 | ROYAL RACER | 14.7% | 6.81 | 7 |
| 4 | 11 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE | 6.3% | 15.99 | 5 |
| 5 | 8 | TELECOM ROCKET | 6.1% | 16.33 | 2 |
| 6 | 12 | HAPPY WIN WIN | 4.8% | 20.96 | 3 |
| 7 | 13 | KA YING BRILLIANCE | 4.7% | 21.47 | 13 |
| 8 | 1 | EZRA | 3.6% | 27.52 | 4 |
| 9 | 7 | RIGHTEOUS WIN | 2.0% | 51.10 | 12 |
| 10 | 6 | JOLLY FOREVER | 1.6% | 62.75 | 10 |
| 11 | 4 | LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT | 1.3% | 75.06 | 9 |
| 12 | 10 | POLYMER LUCK | 1.3% | 76.11 | 8 |
| 13 | 3 | SMART COUSIN | 1.1% | 94.10 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 33
PLACE
5 14.5
8 18
12 32
QUINELLA
5,8 80.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 34.5
5,12 65
8,12 69.5
TIERCE
5,8,12 878
TRIO
5,8,12 212
FIRST 4
1,5,8,12 437
QUARTET
5,8,12,1 7,338
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 23.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
4TH DOUBLE
14/5,14 384
14/8 126.5