Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2020-06-14

Race 1

Griffin GOOD 1000m Course C+3 5 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-06-14 was Griffin over 1000m, run on GOOD going. CHANCHENG PRINCE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by K W Lui, won by 3-1/4, with HONGKONG HARMONY second and SEA MONARCH third. Victory came as the 1.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.57
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 CHANCHENG PRINCE 0.56.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · K W Lui 5 1.3 3-1/4
2 3 HONGKONG HARMONY XB1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 2 7.1 3-1/4
3 4 SEA MONARCH SR/TT K Teetan · W Y So 4 4.3 5-1/2
4 5 TINKER BELLE B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 3 14.0 6-1/2
5 2 FORTUNE TRIPLE M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 1 31.0 7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHANCHENG PRINCE2. HONGKONG HARMONY+3.25L3. SEA MONARCH+5.5L4. TINKER BELLE+6.5L5. FORTUNE TRIPLE+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick CHANCHENG PRINCE (67.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 CHANCHENG PRINCE 67.0% 1.49 1
2 5 TINKER BELLE 11.0% 9.11 4
3 4 SEA MONARCH 10.3% 9.73 3
4 3 HONGKONG HARMONY 9.5% 10.53 2
5 2 FORTUNE TRIPLE 2.3% 43.78 5
CHANCHENG PRINCE — wonTINKER BELLESEA MONARCHHONGKONG HARMONYFORTUNE TRIPLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 13.5

PLACE

1 12

3 21

QUINELLA

1,3 33

TIERCE

1,3,4 83

TRIO

1,3,4 21