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Sha Tin · 2020-06-14

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-06-14 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HANG'S DECISION, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W Y So, won by 1-1/2, with CASIMIRO second and SPARKY STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite CASIMIRO finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 HANG'S DECISION Closed strongly H-/B 1.21.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W Y So 11 4.9 1-1/2
2 7 CASIMIRO Closed strongly N Callan · P O'Sullivan 8 4.1 1-1/2
3 4 SPARKY STAR Closed strongly B J Moreira · D J Hall 7 36.0 2-1/2
4 10 NOBLE DESIRE XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 2 5.6 5
5 2 FAST PACE Closed strongly H1/P1 A Hamelin · C Fownes 14 10.0 5-1/4
6 5 GALLANT LEGACY SR/TT V Borges · C W Chang 10 5.7 5-1/2
7 12 STRATHCLYDE Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · A T Millard 12 18.0 8-1/4
8 6 ANONYMA Closed strongly B Shinn · D E Ferraris 1 110.0 8-1/4
9 9 PRECIOUS SWEETIE H/TT M F Poon · L Ho 4 9.0 8-1/2
10 14 FORTUNATE RUNNER Closed strongly CP/TT H N Wong · K W Lui 6 53.0 10-1/2
11 3 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT B/TT M L Yeung · J Moore 13 20.0 11
12 13 SOLAR VICTORY Led early H1 C Wong · P F Yiu 5 32.0 16-1/4
13 1 MANNA FROM HEAVEN H T H So · K L Man 9 115.0 18-1/4
14 11 SHANGHAI POWER H W Lai · Y S Tsui 3 118.0 19-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HANG'S DECISION—2. CASIMIRO+1.5L3. SPARKY STAR+2.5L4. NOBLE DESIRE+5L5. FAST PACE+5.25L6. GALLANT LEGACY+5.5L7. STRATHCLYDE+8.25L8. ANONYMA+8.25L9. PRECIOUS SWEETIE+8.5L10. FORTUNATE RUNNER+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick CASIMIRO (20.2%) finished 2nd — the winner HANG'S DECISION was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 CASIMIRO 20.2% 4.96 2
2 5 GALLANT LEGACY 16.6% 6.04 6
3 2 FAST PACE 13.8% 7.24 5
4 10 NOBLE DESIRE 12.3% 8.14 4
5 12 STRATHCLYDE 7.1% 14.12 7
6 8 HANG'S DECISION 6.6% 15.14 1
7 9 PRECIOUS SWEETIE 5.9% 16.81 9
8 4 SPARKY STAR 4.7% 21.11 3
9 13 SOLAR VICTORY 3.1% 32.37 12
10 3 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT 2.9% 34.91 11
11 11 SHANGHAI POWER 1.9% 52.36 14
12 14 FORTUNATE RUNNER 1.9% 53.62 10
13 6 ANONYMA 1.6% 63.67 8
14 1 MANNA FROM HEAVEN 1.5% 65.38 13
CASIMIROGALLANT LEGACYFAST PACENOBLE DESIRESTRATHCLYDEHANG'S DECISION — wonPRECIOUS SWEETIESPARKY STARSOLAR VICTORYLAOS ENLIGHTENMENTSHANGHAI POWERFORTUNATE RUNNERANONYMAMANNA FROM HEAVEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 49.5

PLACE

4 92.5

7 15.5

8 18.5

QUINELLA

7,8 94.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 228.5

4,8 286.5

7,8 39

TIERCE

8,7,4 3,853

TRIO

4,7,8 853

FIRST 4

4,7,8,10 1,025

QUARTET

8,7,4,10 23,043

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,6/4,7,8 15,037

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 20.5

4TH DOUBLE

6/7 56.5

6/8 329

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