Sha Tin · 2020-06-14

Race 8

Class 2 WET SLOW 1200m 9 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-06-14 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on WET SLOW going. RED DESERT, ridden by C Schofield and trained by J Size, won by N, with HIGHLY PROACTIVE second and GUNNISON third. The 2.6 favourite GUNNISON finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.07.87

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	RED DESERT 1.07.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · J Size	C Schofield	J Size	1	125 lb	5.6	N
2	6	HIGHLY PROACTIVE H/P/TT V Borges · K W Lui	V Borges	K W Lui	8	122 lb	45.0	N
3	2	GUNNISON J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	2	129 lb	2.6	1-1/4
4	8	FANTASY B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum	M F Poon	C S Shum	4	116 lb	10.0	2-1/4
5	9	WILL POWER XB/B1 K Teetan · D J Whyte	K Teetan	D J Whyte	6	118 lb	4.6	2-3/4
6	4	ENCORE BOY B A Hamelin · P F Yiu	A Hamelin	P F Yiu	7	127 lb	14.0	3
7	7	MAGIC LEGEND CP-/H2 Z Purton · J Moore	Z Purton	J Moore	5	122 lb	13.0	3-3/4
8	1	UGLY WARRIOR C Y Ho · Y S Tsui	C Y Ho	Y S Tsui	3	130 lb	7.8	4
9	3	DRAGON GENERAL P1/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui	H T Mo	Y S Tsui	9	125 lb	20.0	9

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick WILL POWER (33.9%) finished 5th — the winner RED DESERT was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	9	WILL POWER	33.9%	2.95	5	4.6
2	8	FANTASY	19.9%	5.01	4	10.0
3	2	GUNNISON	16.9%	5.90	3	2.6
4	7	MAGIC LEGEND	8.6%	11.65	7	13.0
5	4	ENCORE BOY	6.5%	15.48	6	14.0
6	5	RED DESERT	5.2%	19.05	1	5.6
7	6	HIGHLY PROACTIVE	3.5%	28.27	2	45.0
8	1	UGLY WARRIOR	2.9%	34.29	8	7.8
9	3	DRAGON GENERAL	2.4%	41.22	9	20.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 56.5

PLACE

2 14

5 17.5

6 101

QUINELLA

5,6 1,270

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 33.5

2,6 151

5,6 304

TIERCE

5,6,2 8,011

TRIO

2,5,6 879

FIRST 4

2,5,6,8 1,283

QUARTET

5,6,2,8 42,881

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,6,9/2,5,6 15,286

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 30.5

A1 —

A2 —

7TH DOUBLE

9/5 663.5

9/6 580.5

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