Sha Tin · 2020-06-14

Race 4

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C+3 8 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-06-14 was Class 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LAKESHORE EAGLE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W Y So, won by 1-1/2, with ASSIMILATE second and NICCONI EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite NICCONI EXPRESS finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.33.02

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	LAKESHORE EAGLE Closed strongly 1.33.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W Y So	K Teetan	W Y So	7	116 lb	6.0	1-1/2
2	4	ASSIMILATE Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting	A Hamelin	K H Ting	5	121 lb	8.6	1-1/2
3	3	NICCONI EXPRESS Closed strongly P J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	3	122 lb	2.6	5-1/4
4	1	TIME TO CELEBRATE Led early B K H Chan · J Size	K H Chan	J Size	2	126 lb	9.4	5-1/4
5	5	RIGHT CHOICE Closed strongly B Z Purton · F C Lor	Z Purton	F C Lor	4	120 lb	5.2	5-3/4
6	8	CORDYCEPS B C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	1	116 lb	6.6	7-1/4
7	7	MONICA B/TT V Borges · J Moore	V Borges	J Moore	8	115 lb	33.0	7-3/4
8	2	GOOD STANDING TT C L Chau · J Moore	C L Chau	J Moore	6	115 lb	13.0	10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick NICCONI EXPRESS (25.1%) finished 3rd — the winner LAKESHORE EAGLE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	NICCONI EXPRESS	25.1%	3.99	3	2.6
2	5	RIGHT CHOICE	21.6%	4.62	5	5.2
3	6	LAKESHORE EAGLE	21.3%	4.71	1	6.0
4	4	ASSIMILATE	10.6%	9.44	2	8.6
5	1	TIME TO CELEBRATE	7.0%	14.23	4	9.4
6	2	GOOD STANDING	6.0%	16.60	8	13.0
7	8	CORDYCEPS	5.1%	19.77	6	6.6
8	7	MONICA	3.4%	29.77	7	33.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 60.5

PLACE

3 13

4 26

6 19

QUINELLA

4,6 235

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 46

3,6 29.5

4,6 73.5

TIERCE

6,4,3 1,207

TRIO

3,4,6 182

FIRST 4

1,3,4,6 207

QUARTET

6,4,3,1 5,316

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 33

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

13/4 250

13/6 2,137

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