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Sha Tin · 2020-06-14

Race 9

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-06-14 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CHEVALIER PRINCE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with LEADING FORTUNE second and DESTIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 CHEVALIER PRINCE Closed strongly H 1.21.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 9 2.4 N
2 9 LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly B/E1 N Callan · J Size 6 21.0 N
3 11 DESTIN Closed strongly B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 3 9.5 1-1/2
4 12 NUNCHUKS Closed strongly XB-/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 14 16.0 3
5 1 CHAMP PATROL C Schofield · R Gibson 5 27.0 3-1/2
6 2 SAM'S LOVE Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 13 19.0 4-1/2
7 7 MIGHTY POWER C L Chau · T P Yung 8 7.5 5-1/2
8 6 GALACTIC Led early XB/CP1 J Moreira · D J Whyte 2 4.9 6-3/4
9 13 VICTORY FOR ALL Closed strongly B2 H N Wong · Y S Tsui 10 93.0 7-1/2
10 10 WONDER BRAHMA H B Shinn · D J Hall 1 10.0 7-1/2
11 4 HAPPILY FRIENDS K Teetan · K H Ting 7 42.0 12-3/4
12 5 AFTER ME M F Poon · P F Yiu 4 42.0 15-3/4
13 8 WELL DRAGON TT M L Yeung · W Y So 12 254.0 15-3/4
14 14 GENERAL CASTLEDALE TT H W Lai · D E Ferraris 11 345.0 27-3/4
0 DREAM WARRIORS K Teetan · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHEVALIER PRINCE2. LEADING FORTUNE+0.05L3. DESTIN+1.5L4. NUNCHUKS+3L5. CHAMP PATROL+3.5L6. SAM'S LOVE+4.5L7. MIGHTY POWER+5.5L8. GALACTIC+6.75L9. VICTORY FOR ALL+7.5L10. WONDER BRAHMA+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick GALACTIC (29.2%) finished 8th — the winner CHEVALIER PRINCE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 GALACTIC 29.2% 3.42 8
2 3 CHEVALIER PRINCE 28.8% 3.47 1
3 7 MIGHTY POWER 8.0% 12.54 7
4 4 HAPPILY FRIENDS 5.6% 17.71 11
5 12 NUNCHUKS 5.1% 19.54 4
6 11 DESTIN 5.0% 19.90 3
7 9 LEADING FORTUNE 4.4% 22.97 2
8 5 AFTER ME 3.8% 26.15 12
9 2 SAM'S LOVE 3.2% 30.98 6
10 10 WONDER BRAHMA 2.4% 42.54 10
11 1 CHAMP PATROL 2.2% 45.97 5
12 13 VICTORY FOR ALL 1.1% 94.91 9
13 14 GENERAL CASTLEDALE 0.6% 165.11 14
14 8 WELL DRAGON 0.6% 167.06 13
GALACTICCHEVALIER PRINCE — wonMIGHTY POWERHAPPILY FRIENDSNUNCHUKSDESTINLEADING FORTUNEAFTER MESAM'S LOVEWONDER BRAHMACHAMP PATROLVICTORY FOR ALLGENERAL CASTLEDALEWELL DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 24.5

PLACE

3 13.5

9 49

11 29

QUINELLA

3,9 249.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 89

3,11 44

9,11 237

TIERCE

3,9,11 1,622

TRIO

3,9,11 543

FIRST 4

3,9,11,12 2,195

QUARTET

3,9,11,12 30,966

3 PICK 1

A1 16

A3

A2

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

5/3 139

5/9 121.5