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Happy Valley · 2020-06-24

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-06-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BULLISH BROTHER, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by A S Cruz, won by HD, with SPRINT FORWARD second and FEARLESS FIRE third. The 3.9 favourite SPRINT FORWARD finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.01
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 BULLISH BROTHER B/TT 1.10.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · A S Cruz 2 4.4 HD
2 4 SPRINT FORWARD B/XB/TT V Borges · J Moore 5 3.9 HD
3 3 FEARLESS FIRE B- N Callan · C Fownes 10 7.1 N
4 2 HERO TIME B2 Z Purton · R Gibson 8 14.0 1-1/4
5 10 THIS IS CHARISMA B/H J Moreira · K W Lui 9 8.9 1-3/4
6 12 MELBOURNE HALL H/XB B Shinn · D J Hall 12 9.5 2
7 6 AUTHENTIC CHAMP H1 M L Yeung · K H Ting 6 14.0 2-1/2
8 1 WINNING FEELING B A Hamelin · D E Ferraris 7 9.0 2-1/2
9 8 STARLIGHT K Teetan · C H Yip 11 16.0 3-3/4
10 11 MANY GAINS V M Chadwick · K L Man 4 54.0 4-1/4
11 5 WONDERFUL TIMES XB1/TT1 C Wong · A T Millard 1 73.0 12
12 7 EURO LAGO B-/CP1/H1 K C Leung · C W Chang 3 34.0 15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BULLISH BROTHER2. SPRINT FORWARD+0.2L3. FEARLESS FIRE+0.05L4. HERO TIME+1.25L5. THIS IS CHARISMA+1.75L6. MELBOURNE HALL+2L7. AUTHENTIC CHAMP+2.5L8. WINNING FEELING+2.5L9. STARLIGHT+3.75L10. MANY GAINS+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick THIS IS CHARISMA (26.6%) finished 5th — the winner BULLISH BROTHER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 THIS IS CHARISMA 26.6% 3.76 5
2 9 BULLISH BROTHER 19.2% 5.20 1
3 4 SPRINT FORWARD 15.3% 6.55 2
4 2 HERO TIME 10.7% 9.35 4
5 1 WINNING FEELING 6.4% 15.68 8
6 6 AUTHENTIC CHAMP 5.4% 18.44 7
7 12 MELBOURNE HALL 4.7% 21.45 6
8 3 FEARLESS FIRE 3.6% 27.86 3
9 7 EURO LAGO 3.1% 31.83 12
10 8 STARLIGHT 2.9% 34.01 9
11 5 WONDERFUL TIMES 1.1% 91.06 11
12 11 MANY GAINS 1.0% 100.61 10
THIS IS CHARISMABULLISH BROTHER — wonSPRINT FORWARDHERO TIMEWINNING FEELINGAUTHENTIC CHAMPMELBOURNE HALLFEARLESS FIREEURO LAGOSTARLIGHTWONDERFUL TIMESMANY GAINS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 44

PLACE

3 21

4 16

9 18

QUINELLA

4,9 78.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 43

3,9 57.5

4,9 36

TIERCE

9,4,3 749

TRIO

3,4,9 137

FIRST 4

2,3,4,9 523

QUARTET

9,4,3,2 10,086

1ST DOUBLE

3/4 483.5

3/9 3,194.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 29.5

A3