Happy Valley · 2020-06-24
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2020-06-24 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. VICTORIAM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with WINNING METHOD second and TEAM SPIRIT third. The 2.9 favourite WINNING METHOD finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | VICTORIAM 1.09.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 10 | 7.5 | SH |
| 2 | 10 | WINNING METHOD TT J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 6 | 2.9 | SH |
| 3 | 12 | TEAM SPIRIT B/TT T H So · W Y So | T H So | W Y So | 3 | 78.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | ENCORE BOY B M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 2 | 10.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | SHINING ACE B C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 4 | 8.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | RACING FIGHTER B/TT C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 7 | 51.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | TORNADO TWIST H/TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 12 | 18.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | SPARKLING DRAGON TT A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 8 | 7.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | WALDORF B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 5 | 9.7 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 2 | COUNTRY STAR K H Chan · J Size | K H Chan | J Size | 1 | 9.3 | 4 |
| 11 | 7 | BEAUTY AMIGO B V Borges · J Moore | V Borges | J Moore | 11 | 12.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | MOMENT OF POWER B H N Wong · P O'Sullivan | H N Wong | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 147.0 | 8-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | WINNING METHOD | 28.7% | 3.49 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | VICTORIAM | 14.5% | 6.89 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | SHINING ACE | 13.3% | 7.52 | 5 |
| 4 | 7 | BEAUTY AMIGO | 7.7% | 12.94 | 11 |
| 5 | 3 | WALDORF | 7.4% | 13.44 | 9 |
| 6 | 2 | COUNTRY STAR | 6.9% | 14.50 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | ENCORE BOY | 6.4% | 15.57 | 4 |
| 8 | 9 | SPARKLING DRAGON | 4.9% | 20.36 | 8 |
| 9 | 11 | RACING FIGHTER | 3.9% | 25.70 | 6 |
| 10 | 5 | TORNADO TWIST | 3.5% | 28.17 | 7 |
| 11 | 12 | TEAM SPIRIT | 1.6% | 61.17 | 3 |
| 12 | 8 | MOMENT OF POWER | 1.1% | 94.47 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 75.5
PLACE
6 26.5
10 14.5
12 148
QUINELLA
6,10 100.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,10 45.5
6,12 812.5
10,12 336.5
TIERCE
6,10,12 8,295
TRIO
6,10,12 2,058
FIRST 4
4,6,10,12 3,709
QUARTET
6,10,12,4 73,358
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 21
A2 —
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,7/6,10,12 69,978
8TH DOUBLE
3/6 254.5
3/10 16
SIX UP
7,11/9,11/3,9/6,7/3,7/6,10 1,438
11/9/3/6/3/6 285,899
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
6/3/6 1,317
6/3/10 185