Happy Valley · 2020-06-24
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-06-24 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. DAILY BEAUTY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by NOSE, with UNIVERSAL GO GO second and SHADOW BREAKER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.9 favourite TOTAL POWER finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly TT 1.40.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 8 | 6.0 | NOSE |
| 2 | 7 | UNIVERSAL GO GO Closed strongly B M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 3 | 6.0 | NOSE |
| 3 | 2 | SHADOW BREAKER TT1 C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 2 | 7.1 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 10 | INCANTO PREPARED Closed strongly E/TT A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 10 | 17.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | BIG BANG BONG Closed strongly TT N Callan · C W Chang | N Callan | C W Chang | 7 | 17.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | GO BALLISTIC Closed strongly SR/TT K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 12 | 8.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | TOTAL POWER Closed strongly B1 Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 4 | 5.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | HUMBLE STEED V Borges · T P Yung | V Borges | T P Yung | 1 | 8.2 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Led early B K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 5 | 6.1 | 8 |
| 10 | 6 | PRETTY BAUHINIA Closed strongly B/TT T H So · Y S Tsui | T H So | Y S Tsui | 9 | 31.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | SMART COUSIN M L Yeung · C H Yip | M L Yeung | C H Yip | 11 | 98.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 5 | JOYFUL CHEERS TT K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 6 | 109.0 | 12-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | DAILY BEAUTY | 40.0% | 2.50 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | SHADOW BREAKER | 9.5% | 10.54 | 3 |
| 3 | 1 | TOTAL POWER | 9.4% | 10.60 | 7 |
| 4 | 9 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S | 7.7% | 13.04 | 9 |
| 5 | 8 | GO BALLISTIC | 7.4% | 13.47 | 6 |
| 6 | 12 | HUMBLE STEED | 7.2% | 13.86 | 8 |
| 7 | 7 | UNIVERSAL GO GO | 6.8% | 14.70 | 2 |
| 8 | 10 | INCANTO PREPARED | 5.9% | 16.99 | 4 |
| 9 | 3 | BIG BANG BONG | 2.7% | 37.31 | 5 |
| 10 | 6 | PRETTY BAUHINIA | 2.0% | 49.28 | 10 |
| 11 | 5 | JOYFUL CHEERS | 0.7% | 134.80 | 12 |
| 12 | 4 | SMART COUSIN | 0.7% | 151.50 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 60
PLACE
2 23
7 24
11 22.5
QUINELLA
7,11 205.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 75.5
2,11 90.5
7,11 85
TIERCE
11,7,2 2,112
TRIO
2,7,11 455
FIRST 4
2,7,10,11 1,201
QUARTET
11,7,2,10 24,313
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 29.5
A2 —
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
2/7 204
2/11 1,239.5