Happy Valley · 2020-06-24
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2020-06-24 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ALPHA HEDGE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/2, with SHAMPORT second and TOYCOON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ALPHA HEDGE Closed strongly CP 1.39.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 3 | 3.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | SHAMPORT Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 5 | 6.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | TOYCOON Closed strongly XB M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 6 | 12.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 12 | METHANE Closed strongly CP K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 2 | 4.7 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | BEST ALLIANCE Closed strongly XB A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 12 | 10.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | ULTIMATE GLORY Closed strongly V V Borges · K L Man | V Borges | K L Man | 10 | 61.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | FARSHAD CP H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 4 | 14.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | RICH AND LUCKY Led early XB H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 1 | 5.1 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | DIVINE UNICORN TT T H So · W Y So | T H So | W Y So | 8 | 23.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | MONEY BACK Closed strongly B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 37.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | HAPPY WARRIOR CP K H Chan · J Moore | K H Chan | J Moore | 9 | 31.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 5 | FUN LEGEND B Shinn · R Gibson | B Shinn | R Gibson | 7 | 125.0 | 10-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | METHANE | 22.1% | 4.52 | 4 |
| 2 | 9 | RICH AND LUCKY | 17.1% | 5.86 | 8 |
| 3 | 7 | SHAMPORT | 13.7% | 7.29 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | ALPHA HEDGE | 12.6% | 7.96 | 1 |
| 5 | 6 | BEST ALLIANCE | 8.4% | 11.95 | 5 |
| 6 | 1 | TOYCOON | 6.6% | 15.26 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | HAPPY WARRIOR | 6.2% | 16.25 | 11 |
| 8 | 2 | FARSHAD | 5.9% | 17.03 | 7 |
| 9 | 4 | DIVINE UNICORN | 2.5% | 39.69 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | ULTIMATE GLORY | 2.5% | 40.81 | 6 |
| 11 | 11 | MONEY BACK | 2.2% | 44.73 | 10 |
| 12 | 5 | FUN LEGEND | 0.4% | 252.40 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 36.5
PLACE
1 34
3 16
7 21.5
QUINELLA
3,7 129.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 75.5
1,7 146.5
3,7 51
TIERCE
3,7,1 1,868
TRIO
1,3,7 467
FIRST 4
1,3,7,12 479
QUARTET
3,7,1,12 9,002
3 PICK 1
A1 20.5
A2 —
A3 —
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
6/3 240.5
6/7 140