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Happy Valley · 2020-06-24

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.08.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 HIGHLAND FORTUNE 1.08.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 7 7.0 N
2 0 SKY DARCI TT J Moreira · C Fownes 5 1.5 N
3 0 ISLAND SHINE B A Hamelin · P F Yiu 6 12.0 6
4 0 THE RUNNER SR H N Wong · D J Whyte 1 17.0 6-3/4
5 0 CALIFORNIA TURBO B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 3 8.9 7-1/4
6 0 SPEED VISION B/TT C Wong · F C Lor 11 25.0 8
7 0 MOST BEAUTIFUL B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 9 35.0 8-1/4
8 0 POISED TO STRIKE B1 V Borges · W Y So 12 46.0 8-1/4
9 0 PING HAI GALAXY K C Leung · J Size 8 33.0 8-3/4
10 0 WON BALL T H So · D J Hall 10 161.0 10-1/2
11 0 CZARSON B/TT M L Yeung · J Moore 2 63.0 11
12 0 FANTASTIC FEELING N Callan · D E Ferraris 4 38.0 11-1/2
— 0 YOO YOO KING C Schofield · K H Ting — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-06-24 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HIGHLAND FORTUNE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with SKY DARCI second and ISLAND SHINE third. The 1.5 favourite SKY DARCI finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HIGHLAND FORTUNE—2. SKY DARCI+0.05L3. ISLAND SHINE+6L4. THE RUNNER+6.75L5. CALIFORNIA TURBO+7.25L6. SPEED VISION+8L7. MOST BEAUTIFUL+8.25L8. POISED TO STRIKE+8.25L9. PING HAI GALAXY+8.75L10. WON BALL+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick SKY DARCI (38.5%) finished 2nd — the winner HIGHLAND FORTUNE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SKY DARCI 38.5% 2.59 2
2 0 ISLAND SHINE 17.4% 5.73 3
3 0 HIGHLAND FORTUNE 17.1% 5.85 1
4 0 CALIFORNIA TURBO 12.6% 7.91 5
5 0 THE RUNNER 4.9% 20.32 4
6 0 POISED TO STRIKE 1.8% 55.45 8
7 0 MOST BEAUTIFUL 1.6% 64.19 7
8 0 CZARSON 1.6% 64.48 11
9 0 PING HAI GALAXY 1.5% 67.26 9
10 0 SPEED VISION 1.4% 70.23 6
11 0 FANTASTIC FEELING 1.3% 78.33 12
12 0 WON BALL 0.3% 374.41 10
SKY DARCIISLAND SHINEHIGHLAND FORTUNE — wonCALIFORNIA TURBOTHE RUNNERPOISED TO STRIKEMOST BEAUTIFULCZARSONPING HAI GALAXYSPEED VISIONFANTASTIC FEELINGWON BALL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 70

PLACE

2 28

3 13.5

9 11.5

QUINELLA

3,9 44.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 69

2,9 37.5

3,9 21

TIERCE

3,9,2 870

TRIO

2,3,9 109

FIRST 4

2,3,9,12 185

QUARTET

3,9,2,12 4,582

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 12.5

A3 —

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

9/3 280

9/9 11