Sha Tin · 2020-07-12

Race 4

Class 1 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course A 8 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-12 was Class 1 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FAST MOST FURIOUS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by 1/2, with PRECIOUSSHIP second and SAVVY NINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite GENERAL'S DELIGHT finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.34.28

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	FAST MOST FURIOUS Closed strongly 1.34.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall	Z Purton	D J Hall	1	130 lb	2.9	1/2
2	4	PRECIOUSSHIP Closed strongly XB C L Chau · P F Yiu	C L Chau	P F Yiu	7	117 lb	8.1	1/2
3	7	SAVVY NINE Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · J Moore	M L Yeung	J Moore	2	121 lb	12.0	1
4	8	GENERAL'S DELIGHT XB K Teetan · D J Whyte	K Teetan	D J Whyte	4	118 lb	2.5	1-1/4
5	3	HELENE LEADINGSTAR Closed strongly XB/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz	J Moreira	A S Cruz	8	127 lb	6.2	4
6	1	JOLLY BANNER B M F Poon · P F Yiu	M F Poon	P F Yiu	3	131 lb	16.0	4-1/4
7	5	NORTHERN SUPERSTAR B/TT C Schofield · A T Millard	C Schofield	A T Millard	6	125 lb	53.0	5-3/4
8	6	KINGS SHIELD Led early CP K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	5	124 lb	35.0	5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick GENERAL'S DELIGHT (36.3%) finished 4th — the winner FAST MOST FURIOUS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	GENERAL'S DELIGHT	36.3%	2.76	4	2.5
2	3	HELENE LEADINGSTAR	22.1%	4.53	5	6.2
3	2	FAST MOST FURIOUS	13.8%	7.26	1	2.9
4	4	PRECIOUSSHIP	6.7%	14.93	2	8.1
5	6	KINGS SHIELD	6.3%	15.94	8	35.0
6	1	JOLLY BANNER	5.8%	17.37	6	16.0
7	7	SAVVY NINE	5.2%	19.29	3	12.0
8	5	NORTHERN SUPERSTAR	4.0%	25.19	7	53.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 29

PLACE

2 12

4 19

7 28

QUINELLA

2,4 95

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 33

2,7 55.5

4,7 117

TIERCE

2,4,7 1,393

TRIO

2,4,7 355

FIRST 4

2,4,7,8 117

QUARTET

2,4,7,8 3,488

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 13.5

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

3/2 168.5

3/4 75

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