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Sha Tin · 2020-07-12

Race 4

Class 1 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course A 8 runners

Result

Official · 1.34.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 FAST MOST FURIOUS Closed strongly 1.34.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 1 2.9 1/2
2 0 PRECIOUSSHIP Closed strongly XB C L Chau · P F Yiu 7 8.1 1/2
3 0 SAVVY NINE Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · J Moore 2 12.0 1
4 0 GENERAL'S DELIGHT XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 4 2.5 1-1/4
5 0 HELENE LEADINGSTAR Closed strongly XB/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 8 6.2 4
6 0 JOLLY BANNER B M F Poon · P F Yiu 3 16.0 4-1/4
7 0 NORTHERN SUPERSTAR B/TT C Schofield · A T Millard 6 53.0 5-3/4
8 0 KINGS SHIELD Led early CP K C Leung · F C Lor 5 35.0 5-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-12 was Class 1 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FAST MOST FURIOUS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by 1/2, with PRECIOUSSHIP second and SAVVY NINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite GENERAL'S DELIGHT finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FAST MOST FURIOUS—2. PRECIOUSSHIP+0.5L3. SAVVY NINE+1L4. GENERAL'S DELIGHT+1.25L5. HELENE LEADINGSTAR+4L6. JOLLY BANNER+4.25L7. NORTHERN SUPERSTAR+5.75L8. KINGS SHIELD+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick GENERAL'S DELIGHT (36.3%) finished 4th — the winner FAST MOST FURIOUS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GENERAL'S DELIGHT 36.3% 2.76 4
2 0 HELENE LEADINGSTAR 22.1% 4.53 5
3 0 FAST MOST FURIOUS 13.8% 7.26 1
4 0 PRECIOUSSHIP 6.7% 14.93 2
5 0 KINGS SHIELD 6.3% 15.94 8
6 0 JOLLY BANNER 5.8% 17.37 6
7 0 SAVVY NINE 5.2% 19.29 3
8 0 NORTHERN SUPERSTAR 4.0% 25.19 7
GENERAL'S DELIGHTHELENE LEADINGSTARFAST MOST FURIOUS — wonPRECIOUSSHIPKINGS SHIELDJOLLY BANNERSAVVY NINENORTHERN SUPERSTAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 29

PLACE

2 12

4 19

7 28

QUINELLA

2,4 95

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 33

2,7 55.5

4,7 117

TIERCE

2,4,7 1,393

TRIO

2,4,7 355

FIRST 4

2,4,7,8 117

QUARTET

2,4,7,8 3,488

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 13.5

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

3/2 168.5

3/4 75