Sha Tin · 2020-07-12
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | KELMIMI WINS Closed strongly B/TT 1.22.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Moore | J Moreira | J Moore | 2 | 3.0 | NOSE |
| 2 | 0 | ADONIS Closed strongly P-/H K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 9 | 5.4 | NOSE |
| 3 | 0 | TREASURE CHEST Closed strongly XB1/B2 K H Chan · P F Yiu | K H Chan | P F Yiu | 5 | 4.6 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | E GENERATION Led early TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 6 | 23.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | WINNING CONTROLLER Closed strongly B- B Shinn · C H Yip | B Shinn | C H Yip | 3 | 31.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | SPEEDY DRAGON Closed strongly B2 Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 14 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 0 | SHANGHAI DRAGON B A Hamelin · T P Yung | A Hamelin | T P Yung | 7 | 6.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | NITRO EXPRESS B/TT C Schofield · D E Ferraris | C Schofield | D E Ferraris | 1 | 14.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | CORRE RAPIDO B C Wong · R Gibson | C Wong | R Gibson | 8 | 100.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | SPICY REALLY B-/V1/TT H N Wong · F C Lor | H N Wong | F C Lor | 10 | 98.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | BRAVERY AND POWER Closed strongly TT M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 12 | 102.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 0 | AMAZING AGILITY Closed strongly SR/B2/TT- H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 11 | 51.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 13 | 0 | ONE STEP AHEAD B/TT N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 76.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 0 | DIAMOND LEGEND V/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 13 | 34.0 | 11-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-12 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. KELMIMI WINS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Moore, won by NOSE, with ADONIS second and TREASURE CHEST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | KELMIMI WINS | 34.1% | 2.93 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | TREASURE CHEST | 13.6% | 7.37 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | SPEEDY DRAGON | 11.2% | 8.95 | 6 |
| 4 | 0 | NITRO EXPRESS | 7.8% | 12.89 | 8 |
| 5 | 0 | SHANGHAI DRAGON | 7.2% | 13.81 | 7 |
| 6 | 0 | ADONIS | 6.2% | 16.16 | 2 |
| 7 | 0 | CORRE RAPIDO | 3.8% | 25.99 | 9 |
| 8 | 0 | E GENERATION | 3.5% | 28.26 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | DIAMOND LEGEND | 3.0% | 33.89 | 14 |
| 10 | 0 | ONE STEP AHEAD | 2.9% | 34.82 | 13 |
| 11 | 0 | BRAVERY AND POWER | 1.9% | 52.16 | 11 |
| 12 | 0 | SPICY REALLY | 1.8% | 55.97 | 10 |
| 13 | 0 | AMAZING AGILITY | 1.8% | 56.57 | 12 |
| 14 | 0 | WINNING CONTROLLER | 1.3% | 78.01 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 30
PLACE
6 19
7 14.5
11 16
QUINELLA
6,7 102.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 40.5
6,11 52
7,11 33.5
TIERCE
7,6,11 561
TRIO
6,7,11 131
FIRST 4
6,7,11,12 519
QUARTET
7,6,11,12 6,812
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 20.5