Sha Tin · 2020-07-12
Race 8
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | MR ALDAN Closed strongly B/TT 1.33.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 12 | 6.1 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 | THE ROCK Closed strongly H C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 2 | 3.6 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | CORDYCEPS B C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 8 | 9.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | ENTRUSTED Closed strongly K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 3 | 7.8 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | CHARIZARD Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · D E Ferraris | K C Leung | D E Ferraris | 9 | 36.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | FANTASTIC SHOW Closed strongly B J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 7 | 7.5 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | EVER LAUGH B/TT C Wong · K L Man | C Wong | K L Man | 11 | 27.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 0 | EMERALD SPUR B/TT H T Mo · P F Yiu | H T Mo | P F Yiu | 4 | 23.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 0 | SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 10 | 36.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | SUPER ELEGANCE B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 14 | 21.0 | 10 |
| 11 | 0 | PRECISE EXPRESS M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 1 | 7.3 | 12-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | PAKISTAN FRIEND Led early B/TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 5 | 43.0 | 13 |
| 13 | 0 | RACING LUCK M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 6 | 21.0 | 16-1/2 |
| 14 | 0 | DECISIVE ACTION T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 13 | 84.0 | 37-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-12 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MR ALDAN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3, with THE ROCK second and CORDYCEPS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite THE ROCK finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FANTASTIC SHOW | 17.6% | 5.69 | 6 |
| 2 | 0 | THE ROCK | 17.0% | 5.89 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | MR ALDAN | 10.2% | 9.85 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | SUPER ELEGANCE | 8.3% | 12.09 | 10 |
| 5 | 0 | ENTRUSTED | 7.5% | 13.35 | 4 |
| 6 | 0 | RACING LUCK | 6.0% | 16.80 | 13 |
| 7 | 0 | EMERALD SPUR | 5.6% | 17.83 | 8 |
| 8 | 0 | PRECISE EXPRESS | 4.9% | 20.36 | 11 |
| 9 | 0 | EVER LAUGH | 4.9% | 20.50 | 7 |
| 10 | 0 | CORDYCEPS | 4.4% | 22.53 | 3 |
| 11 | 0 | DECISIVE ACTION | 4.1% | 24.15 | 14 |
| 12 | 0 | SUPERB DADDY | 4.1% | 24.43 | 9 |
| 13 | 0 | CHARIZARD | 3.1% | 32.12 | 5 |
| 14 | 0 | PAKISTAN FRIEND | 2.4% | 41.34 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 61.5
PLACE
1 30
4 15.5
5 25
QUINELLA
4,5 131.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 61.5
1,5 117
4,5 55
TIERCE
5,4,1 2,053
TRIO
1,4,5 350
FIRST 4
1,4,5,7 820
QUARTET
5,4,1,7 17,364
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,8,14/1,4,5 19,403
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 24.5
A1 —
A3 —
7TH DOUBLE
8/4 31.5
8/5 258.5