沙田 · 2020-07-12
第 8場
2020-07-12沙田第8場，Class 3，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、A S Cruz訓練的MR ALDAN勝出，贏出3。THE ROCK獲得亞軍；CORDYCEPS獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.6倍大熱門THE ROCK跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | MR ALDAN 後段發力 B/TT 1.33.27 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 12 | 6.1 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | THE ROCK 後段發力 H C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 2 | 3.6 | 3 |
| 3 | 1 | CORDYCEPS B C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 8 | 9.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | ENTRUSTED 後段發力 K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 3 | 7.8 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | CHARIZARD 後段發力 CP/TT K C Leung · D E Ferraris | K C Leung | D E Ferraris | 9 | 36.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | FANTASTIC SHOW 後段發力 B J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 7 | 7.5 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | EVER LAUGH B/TT C Wong · K L Man | C Wong | K L Man | 11 | 27.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 13 | EMERALD SPUR B/TT H T Mo · P F Yiu | H T Mo | P F Yiu | 4 | 23.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 12 | SUPERB DADDY 後段發力 M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 10 | 36.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | SUPER ELEGANCE B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 14 | 21.0 | 10 |
| 11 | 3 | PRECISE EXPRESS M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 1 | 7.3 | 12-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | PAKISTAN FRIEND 早段領放 B/TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 5 | 43.0 | 13 |
| 13 | 6 | RACING LUCK M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 6 | 21.0 | 16-1/2 |
| 14 | 14 | DECISIVE ACTION T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 13 | 84.0 | 37-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | FANTASTIC SHOW | 17.6% | 5.69 | 6 |
| 2 | 4 | THE ROCK | 17.0% | 5.89 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | MR ALDAN | 10.2% | 9.85 | 1 |
| 4 | 8 | SUPER ELEGANCE | 8.3% | 12.09 | 10 |
| 5 | 7 | ENTRUSTED | 7.5% | 13.35 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | RACING LUCK | 6.0% | 16.80 | 13 |
| 7 | 13 | EMERALD SPUR | 5.6% | 17.83 | 8 |
| 8 | 3 | PRECISE EXPRESS | 4.9% | 20.36 | 11 |
| 9 | 10 | EVER LAUGH | 4.9% | 20.50 | 7 |
| 10 | 1 | CORDYCEPS | 4.4% | 22.53 | 3 |
| 11 | 14 | DECISIVE ACTION | 4.1% | 24.15 | 14 |
| 12 | 12 | SUPERB DADDY | 4.1% | 24.43 | 9 |
| 13 | 11 | CHARIZARD | 3.1% | 32.12 | 5 |
| 14 | 9 | PAKISTAN FRIEND | 2.4% | 41.34 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 61.5
PLACE
1 30
4 15.5
5 25
QUINELLA
4,5 131.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 61.5
1,5 117
4,5 55
TIERCE
5,4,1 2,053
TRIO
1,4,5 350
FIRST 4
1,4,5,7 820
QUARTET
5,4,1,7 17,364
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,8,14/1,4,5 19,403
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 24.5
7TH DOUBLE
8/4 31.5
8/5 258.5