沙田 · 2020-07-12
第 11場
2020-07-12沙田第11場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、P F Yiu訓練的GOOD LUCK FRIEND勝出，贏出1/2。SMART LEADER獲得亞軍；METRO WARRIOR獲得季軍。2.2倍大熱門WINNING BREW跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND CP 1.08.93 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 8 | 4.3 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | SMART LEADER B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 1 | 6.6 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | METRO WARRIOR CP N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 2 | 7.9 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | MOERAKI CP-/B1 C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 12 | 141.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | WINNING BREW Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 5 | 2.2 | 2 |
| 6 | 14 | KEEP YOU WARM B/XB H T Mo · K W Lui | H T Mo | K W Lui | 6 | 23.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 4 | CRUISING C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 14 | 21.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 11 | TRUST ME B- T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 11 | 92.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 6 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE B Shinn · W Y So | B Shinn | W Y So | 13 | 282.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 1 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT K H Chan · D J Hall | K H Chan | D J Hall | 9 | 18.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 12 | DAY DAY RICH B M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 7 | 289.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 13 | FIRST RESPONDER B K C Leung · D J Whyte | K C Leung | D J Whyte | 10 | 56.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 13 | 7 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 4 | 15.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 14 | 10 | TOTAL EXCESS TT H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 3 | 85.0 | 14 |
| — | 0 | HAPPY ALUMNI M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | WINNING BREW | 33.5% | 2.98 | 5 |
| 2 | 2 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND | 26.6% | 3.77 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | SMART LEADER | 8.9% | 11.28 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | METRO WARRIOR | 7.0% | 14.35 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE | 4.5% | 22.23 | 13 |
| 6 | 1 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE | 4.2% | 23.85 | 10 |
| 7 | 13 | FIRST RESPONDER | 3.9% | 25.70 | 12 |
| 8 | 4 | CRUISING | 3.3% | 29.86 | 7 |
| 9 | 10 | TOTAL EXCESS | 2.7% | 37.08 | 14 |
| 10 | 14 | KEEP YOU WARM | 2.6% | 38.15 | 6 |
| 11 | 8 | MOERAKI | 0.9% | 107.79 | 4 |
| 12 | 11 | TRUST ME | 0.8% | 124.42 | 8 |
| 13 | 6 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE | 0.7% | 138.68 | 9 |
| 14 | 12 | DAY DAY RICH | 0.4% | 259.68 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 43.5
PLACE
2 15.5
3 20.5
5 24
QUINELLA
2,3 137
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 43.5
2,5 62
3,5 85
TIERCE
2,3,5 1,241
TRIO
2,3,5 245
FIRST 4
2,3,5,8 4,367
QUARTET
2,3,5,8 51,707
10TH DOUBLE
10/2 626
10/3 164.5
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 15
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
4,8,10/2,3,5 17,568
SIX UP
1,3/1,8/4,5/1,2/8,10/2,3 6,008
3/8/5/1/10/2 169,751
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
1/10/2 4,311
1/10/3 1,403