沙田 · 2020-07-12
第 1場
2020-07-12沙田第1場，Class 5，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、J Moore訓練的KELMIMI WINS勝出，贏出NOSE。ADONIS獲得亞軍；TREASURE CHEST獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.0倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | KELMIMI WINS 後段發力 B/TT 1.22.00 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Moore | J Moreira | J Moore | 2 | 3.0 | NOSE |
| 2 | 6 | ADONIS 後段發力 P-/H K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 9 | 5.4 | NOSE |
| 3 | 11 | TREASURE CHEST 後段發力 XB1/B2 K H Chan · P F Yiu | K H Chan | P F Yiu | 5 | 4.6 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | E GENERATION 早段領放 TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 6 | 23.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | WINNING CONTROLLER 後段發力 B- B Shinn · C H Yip | B Shinn | C H Yip | 3 | 31.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | SPEEDY DRAGON 後段發力 B2 Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 14 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 1 | SHANGHAI DRAGON B A Hamelin · T P Yung | A Hamelin | T P Yung | 7 | 6.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | NITRO EXPRESS B/TT C Schofield · D E Ferraris | C Schofield | D E Ferraris | 1 | 14.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 14 | CORRE RAPIDO B C Wong · R Gibson | C Wong | R Gibson | 8 | 100.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 13 | SPICY REALLY B-/V1/TT H N Wong · F C Lor | H N Wong | F C Lor | 10 | 98.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | BRAVERY AND POWER 後段發力 TT M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 12 | 102.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | AMAZING AGILITY 後段發力 SR/B2/TT- H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 11 | 51.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 13 | 9 | ONE STEP AHEAD B/TT N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 76.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 5 | DIAMOND LEGEND V/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 13 | 34.0 | 11-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | KELMIMI WINS | 34.1% | 2.93 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | TREASURE CHEST | 13.6% | 7.37 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | SPEEDY DRAGON | 11.2% | 8.95 | 6 |
| 4 | 2 | NITRO EXPRESS | 7.8% | 12.89 | 8 |
| 5 | 1 | SHANGHAI DRAGON | 7.2% | 13.81 | 7 |
| 6 | 6 | ADONIS | 6.2% | 16.16 | 2 |
| 7 | 14 | CORRE RAPIDO | 3.8% | 25.99 | 9 |
| 8 | 12 | E GENERATION | 3.5% | 28.26 | 4 |
| 9 | 5 | DIAMOND LEGEND | 3.0% | 33.89 | 14 |
| 10 | 9 | ONE STEP AHEAD | 2.9% | 34.82 | 13 |
| 11 | 10 | BRAVERY AND POWER | 1.9% | 52.16 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | SPICY REALLY | 1.8% | 55.97 | 10 |
| 13 | 8 | AMAZING AGILITY | 1.8% | 56.57 | 12 |
| 14 | 4 | WINNING CONTROLLER | 1.3% | 78.01 | 5 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 30
PLACE
6 19
7 14.5
11 16
QUINELLA
6,7 102.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 40.5
6,11 52
7,11 33.5
TIERCE
7,6,11 561
TRIO
6,7,11 131
FIRST 4
6,7,11,12 519
QUARTET
7,6,11,12 6,812
3 PICK 1
A1 20.5
A3 —
A2 —