沙田 · 2020-07-12
第 5場
2020-07-12沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由C Schofield策騎、P F Yiu訓練的NATURAL STORM勝出，贏出1-1/4。MANAGEMENT STAR獲得亞軍；GOOD DAYS獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.1倍大熱門CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE跑獲第11名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | NATURAL STORM 後段發力 B 1.47.46 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Schofield · P F Yiu | C Schofield | P F Yiu | 3 | 4.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 10 | MANAGEMENT STAR 後段發力 N Callan · K W Lui | N Callan | K W Lui | 13 | 43.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | GOOD DAYS 後段發力 B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 14 | 8.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | FAMILY LEADER B M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 8 | 13.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 14 | MISTER MONTE CP M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 12 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | JIMMU 後段發力 SR-/CP1 B Shinn · Y S Tsui | B Shinn | Y S Tsui | 11 | 33.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | LET'S TAKE IT EASY CP-/H2 C Wong · L Ho | C Wong | L Ho | 2 | 92.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | SMART COUSIN 後段發力 T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 9 | 246.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | CHEERFUL STAR 後段發力 CP/TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 5 | 7.3 | 10-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | REYNOLDS SR C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 7 | 25.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 11 | 13 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE 早段領放 H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 10 | 4.1 | 11-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 1 | 25.0 | 14 |
| 13 | 11 | MCMUNIGAL B/TT M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 6 | 5.6 | 21-1/2 |
| 14 | 5 | DRAGON COMMANDER CP A Hamelin · D E Ferraris | A Hamelin | D E Ferraris | 4 | 39.0 | 32 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | CHEERFUL STAR | 20.2% | 4.94 | 9 |
| 2 | 13 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE | 12.8% | 7.83 | 11 |
| 3 | 11 | MCMUNIGAL | 11.1% | 8.99 | 13 |
| 4 | 6 | GOOD DAYS | 11.0% | 9.08 | 3 |
| 5 | 12 | FAMILY LEADER | 10.2% | 9.79 | 4 |
| 6 | 7 | NATURAL STORM | 9.0% | 11.16 | 1 |
| 7 | 14 | MISTER MONTE | 6.7% | 14.90 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 4.7% | 21.32 | 14 |
| 9 | 2 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA | 3.8% | 26.18 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | MANAGEMENT STAR | 3.6% | 27.50 | 2 |
| 11 | 3 | JIMMU | 2.8% | 35.62 | 6 |
| 12 | 1 | REYNOLDS | 2.2% | 46.45 | 10 |
| 13 | 4 | LET'S TAKE IT EASY | 1.2% | 84.49 | 7 |
| 14 | 8 | SMART COUSIN | 0.7% | 144.99 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 49
PLACE
6 31.5
7 17.5
10 114
QUINELLA
7,10 1,057.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 81
6,10 460
7,10 322
TIERCE
7,10,6 14,881
TRIO
6,7,10 2,910
FIRST 4
6,7,10,12 7,237
QUARTET
7,10,6,12 147,913
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,7/6,7,10 91,513
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 20
4TH DOUBLE
2/7 174
2/10 191