Sha Tin · 2020-07-12
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B 1.47.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · P F Yiu | C Schofield | P F Yiu | 3 | 4.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | MANAGEMENT STAR Closed strongly N Callan · K W Lui | N Callan | K W Lui | 13 | 43.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | GOOD DAYS Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 14 | 8.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | FAMILY LEADER B M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 8 | 13.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | MISTER MONTE CP M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 12 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | JIMMU Closed strongly SR-/CP1 B Shinn · Y S Tsui | B Shinn | Y S Tsui | 11 | 33.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | LET'S TAKE IT EASY CP-/H2 C Wong · L Ho | C Wong | L Ho | 2 | 92.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | SMART COUSIN Closed strongly T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 9 | 246.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly CP/TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 5 | 7.3 | 10-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | REYNOLDS SR C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 7 | 25.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE Led early H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 10 | 4.1 | 11-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 1 | 25.0 | 14 |
| 13 | 0 | MCMUNIGAL B/TT M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 6 | 5.6 | 21-1/2 |
| 14 | 0 | DRAGON COMMANDER CP A Hamelin · D E Ferraris | A Hamelin | D E Ferraris | 4 | 39.0 | 32 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-12 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. NATURAL STORM, ridden by C Schofield and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with MANAGEMENT STAR second and GOOD DAYS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE finished 11th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CHEERFUL STAR | 20.2% | 4.94 | 9 |
| 2 | 0 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE | 12.8% | 7.83 | 11 |
| 3 | 0 | MCMUNIGAL | 11.1% | 8.99 | 13 |
| 4 | 0 | GOOD DAYS | 11.0% | 9.08 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | FAMILY LEADER | 10.2% | 9.79 | 4 |
| 6 | 0 | NATURAL STORM | 9.0% | 11.16 | 1 |
| 7 | 0 | MISTER MONTE | 6.7% | 14.90 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 4.7% | 21.32 | 14 |
| 9 | 0 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA | 3.8% | 26.18 | 12 |
| 10 | 0 | MANAGEMENT STAR | 3.6% | 27.50 | 2 |
| 11 | 0 | JIMMU | 2.8% | 35.62 | 6 |
| 12 | 0 | REYNOLDS | 2.2% | 46.45 | 10 |
| 13 | 0 | LET'S TAKE IT EASY | 1.2% | 84.49 | 7 |
| 14 | 0 | SMART COUSIN | 0.7% | 144.99 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 49
PLACE
6 31.5
7 17.5
10 114
QUINELLA
7,10 1,057.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 81
6,10 460
7,10 322
TIERCE
7,10,6 14,881
TRIO
6,7,10 2,910
FIRST 4
6,7,10,12 7,237
QUARTET
7,10,6,12 147,913
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,7/6,7,10 91,513
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 20
A1 —
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE
2/7 174
2/10 191