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Sha Tin · 2020-07-12

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. VIGOR CHAMP, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by K H Ting, won by SH, with MONKEY JEWELLERY second and HELAKU KNIGHT third. The 1.6 favourite MIGHTY VALOR finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 VIGOR CHAMP B 1.09.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · K H Ting 6 24.0 SH
2 2 MONKEY JEWELLERY J Moreira · J Size 4 7.2 SH
3 1 HELAKU KNIGHT CP-/H2/XB2 N Callan · J Moore 1 44.0 1
4 5 MIGHTY VALOR Z Purton · P F Yiu 5 1.6 1
5 8 BRILLIANT H/TT K C Leung · K W Lui 8 44.0 2-1/4
6 4 HAPPY TIME TT B Shinn · W Y So 3 17.0 2-1/2
7 6 LUCKY PUZZLE B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 2 17.0 2-3/4
8 9 PRECIOUS SWEETIE H/TT M F Poon · L Ho 11 42.0 3
9 10 REGENCY POET B M Chadwick · K L Man 12 39.0 3-1/4
10 3 SIMPLY FLUKE H/P/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 7 8.0 4-1/2
11 11 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B K H Chan · F C Lor 14 15.0 5-1/2
12 12 GLORIOUS BUDDY T H So · D J Hall 10 221.0 7
13 13 GREAT SON V/TT H N Wong · P O'Sullivan 13 110.0 7-1/2
14 7 WONDERFUL TIMES XB/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard 9 189.0 15

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VIGOR CHAMP2. MONKEY JEWELLERY+0.1L3. HELAKU KNIGHT+1L4. MIGHTY VALOR+1L5. BRILLIANT+2.25L6. HAPPY TIME+2.5L7. LUCKY PUZZLE+2.75L8. PRECIOUS SWEETIE+3L9. REGENCY POET+3.25L10. SIMPLY FLUKE+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick MIGHTY VALOR (35.1%) finished 4th — the winner VIGOR CHAMP was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MIGHTY VALOR 35.1% 2.85 4
2 2 MONKEY JEWELLERY 18.4% 5.44 2
3 3 SIMPLY FLUKE 10.4% 9.61 10
4 10 REGENCY POET 6.9% 14.51 9
5 13 GREAT SON 5.6% 17.81 13
6 11 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 5.2% 19.40 11
7 6 LUCKY PUZZLE 4.2% 23.96 7
8 14 VIGOR CHAMP 3.7% 27.13 1
9 4 HAPPY TIME 3.2% 31.09 6
10 9 PRECIOUS SWEETIE 2.3% 43.28 8
11 8 BRILLIANT 1.7% 58.60 5
12 1 HELAKU KNIGHT 1.6% 61.12 3
13 12 GLORIOUS BUDDY 1.0% 102.07 12
14 7 WONDERFUL TIMES 0.8% 131.49 14
MIGHTY VALORMONKEY JEWELLERYSIMPLY FLUKEREGENCY POETGREAT SONALL FOR ST PAUL'SLUCKY PUZZLEVIGOR CHAMP — wonHAPPY TIMEPRECIOUS SWEETIEBRILLIANTHELAKU KNIGHTGLORIOUS BUDDYWONDERFUL TIMES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 245.5

PLACE

1 91

2 19.5

14 41.5

QUINELLA

2,14 628

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 298

1,14 941

2,14 150.5

TIERCE

14,2,1 36,054

TRIO

1,2,14 6,629

FIRST 4

1,2,5,14 1,407

QUARTET

14,2,1,5 71,310

1ST DOUBLE

7/2 23.5

7/14 439.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 33