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Sha Tin · 2020-07-12

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.10
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE Closed strongly B 1.21.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D J Hall 8 3.8 1-3/4
2 0 SO WE JOY Closed strongly CP/TT A Hamelin · J Moore 6 5.3 1-3/4
3 0 GOLDEN MISSION Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C W Chang 2 12.0 2-1/2
4 0 SUPER RED DRAGON B/TT J Moreira · W Y So 7 6.3 3-1/2
5 0 DREAM WARRIORS CP/H/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 12 25.0 3-3/4
6 0 ARMOR STAR Led early B1 Z Purton · F C Lor 1 3.6 3-3/4
7 0 DESTIN Closed strongly B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 9 18.0 4
8 0 KA FORTUNE Closed strongly V/XB M L Yeung · L Ho 10 48.0 5-1/4
9 0 TRIUMPHANT HORSE Closed strongly B/TT C Schofield · K H Ting 11 37.0 5-3/4
10 0 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT P-/TT T H So · C H Yip 3 82.0 6-1/2
11 0 UNIVERSAL CROWN XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 5 18.0 9-3/4
12 0 MANNA FROM HEAVEN H H T Mo · K L Man 14 352.0 13-1/4
13 0 GENERAL DINO B H W Lai · D E Ferraris 13 263.0 17
— 0 APOLAR WARRIOR B K C Leung · P F Yiu 4 32.0 —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-12 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SUMSTREETSUMWHERE, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-3/4, with SO WE JOY second and GOLDEN MISSION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite ARMOR STAR finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUMSTREETSUMWHERE—2. SO WE JOY+1.75L3. GOLDEN MISSION+2.5L4. SUPER RED DRAGON+3.5L5. DREAM WARRIORS+3.75L6. ARMOR STAR+3.75L7. DESTIN+4L8. KA FORTUNE+5.25L9. TRIUMPHANT HORSE+5.75L10. CHUNG WAH SPIRIT+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick ARMOR STAR (26.3%) finished 6th — the winner SUMSTREETSUMWHERE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ARMOR STAR 26.3% 3.80 6
2 0 SO WE JOY 22.4% 4.46 2
3 0 SUPER RED DRAGON 15.0% 6.65 4
4 0 DREAM WARRIORS 6.0% 16.53 5
5 0 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE 5.9% 16.86 1
6 0 DESTIN 5.2% 19.13 7
7 0 GOLDEN MISSION 5.1% 19.52 3
8 0 UNIVERSAL CROWN 4.5% 22.13 11
9 0 TRIUMPHANT HORSE 3.9% 25.54 9
10 0 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT 1.8% 54.71 10
11 0 KA FORTUNE 1.8% 55.86 8
12 0 GENERAL DINO 1.2% 86.57 13
13 0 MANNA FROM HEAVEN 0.7% 143.12 12
ARMOR STARSO WE JOYSUPER RED DRAGONDREAM WARRIORSSUMSTREETSUMWHERE — wonDESTINGOLDEN MISSIONUNIVERSAL CROWNTRIUMPHANT HORSECHUNG WAH SPIRITKA FORTUNEGENERAL DINOMANNA FROM HEAVEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 38

PLACE

1 19.5

8 15.5

14 29

QUINELLA

1,8 104

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 43.5

1,14 91.5

8,14 83

TIERCE

8,1,14 1,458

TRIO

1,8,14 342

FIRST 4

1,8,12,14 510

QUARTET

8,1,14,12 10,034

3 PICK 1

A2 20

A1 —

A3 —

All pools (3 more)

6TH DOUBLE

3/1 15.5

3/8 68.5

TRIPLE TRIO

6,7,10/1,3,14/1,8,14 10,507,328

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

6,7,10/1,3,14/Any Combination 19,472