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Sha Tin · 2020-07-12

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 13 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-12 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SUMSTREETSUMWHERE, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-3/4, with SO WE JOY second and GOLDEN MISSION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite ARMOR STAR finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.21.10
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE Closed strongly B 1.21.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D J Hall 8 3.8 1-3/4
2 1 SO WE JOY Closed strongly CP/TT A Hamelin · J Moore 6 5.3 1-3/4
3 14 GOLDEN MISSION Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C W Chang 2 12.0 2-1/2
4 12 SUPER RED DRAGON B/TT J Moreira · W Y So 7 6.3 3-1/2
5 4 DREAM WARRIORS CP/H/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 12 25.0 3-3/4
6 2 ARMOR STAR Led early B1 Z Purton · F C Lor 1 3.6 3-3/4
7 10 DESTIN Closed strongly B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 9 18.0 4
8 13 KA FORTUNE Closed strongly V/XB M L Yeung · L Ho 10 48.0 5-1/4
9 5 TRIUMPHANT HORSE Closed strongly B/TT C Schofield · K H Ting 11 37.0 5-3/4
10 6 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT P-/TT T H So · C H Yip 3 82.0 6-1/2
11 9 UNIVERSAL CROWN XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 5 18.0 9-3/4
12 3 MANNA FROM HEAVEN H H T Mo · K L Man 14 352.0 13-1/4
13 11 GENERAL DINO B H W Lai · D E Ferraris 13 263.0 17
7 APOLAR WARRIOR B K C Leung · P F Yiu 4 32.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUMSTREETSUMWHERE2. SO WE JOY+1.75L3. GOLDEN MISSION+2.5L4. SUPER RED DRAGON+3.5L5. DREAM WARRIORS+3.75L6. ARMOR STAR+3.75L7. DESTIN+4L8. KA FORTUNE+5.25L9. TRIUMPHANT HORSE+5.75L10. CHUNG WAH SPIRIT+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick ARMOR STAR (26.3%) finished 6th — the winner SUMSTREETSUMWHERE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 ARMOR STAR 26.3% 3.80 6
2 1 SO WE JOY 22.4% 4.46 2
3 12 SUPER RED DRAGON 15.0% 6.65 4
4 4 DREAM WARRIORS 6.0% 16.53 5
5 8 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE 5.9% 16.86 1
6 10 DESTIN 5.2% 19.13 7
7 14 GOLDEN MISSION 5.1% 19.52 3
8 9 UNIVERSAL CROWN 4.5% 22.13 11
9 5 TRIUMPHANT HORSE 3.9% 25.54 9
10 6 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT 1.8% 54.71 10
11 13 KA FORTUNE 1.8% 55.86 8
12 11 GENERAL DINO 1.2% 86.57 13
13 3 MANNA FROM HEAVEN 0.7% 143.12 12
ARMOR STARSO WE JOYSUPER RED DRAGONDREAM WARRIORSSUMSTREETSUMWHERE — wonDESTINGOLDEN MISSIONUNIVERSAL CROWNTRIUMPHANT HORSECHUNG WAH SPIRITKA FORTUNEGENERAL DINOMANNA FROM HEAVEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 38

PLACE

1 19.5

8 15.5

14 29

QUINELLA

1,8 104

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 43.5

1,14 91.5

8,14 83

TIERCE

8,1,14 1,458

TRIO

1,8,14 342

FIRST 4

1,8,12,14 510

QUARTET

8,1,14,12 10,034

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 20

A1

All pools (3 more)

6TH DOUBLE

3/1 15.5

3/8 68.5

TRIPLE TRIO

6,7,10/1,3,14/1,8,14 10,507,328

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

6,7,10/1,3,14/Any Combination 19,472