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Sha Tin · 2020-07-12

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CIRCUIT HASSLER Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.21.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz 11 4.7 1-1/4
2 0 LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly B/E N Callan · J Size 2 4.9 1-1/4
3 0 ROMAN IMPERO Closed strongly B- K H Chan · C H Yip 1 24.0 2-3/4
4 0 SMART CHARADE Closed strongly B/H/TT J Moreira · W Y So 7 3.1 2-3/4
5 0 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly B M F Poon · P F Yiu 9 13.0 3-1/4
6 0 MIGHTY POWER C L Chau · T P Yung 4 11.0 3-1/2
7 0 MY WINNER Closed strongly B A Hamelin · R Gibson 14 23.0 3-3/4
8 0 SOLAR POWER Closed strongly M L Yeung · L Ho 12 29.0 4
9 0 GOOD SHOT XB Z Purton · D J Hall 8 27.0 5
10 0 SMART WONGCHOY Led early H/P/XB C Schofield · D J Whyte 5 8.1 5
11 0 JOYFUL CHEERS TT H W Lai · C S Shum 3 230.0 6-3/4
12 0 SPICY GRILL Closed strongly B1/H1/TT H T Mo · K W Lui 10 36.0 8-1/4
13 0 PRIME TIME B/H H N Wong · Y S Tsui 13 272.0 11-1/2
14 0 RED ZOFFANY SR/TT C Wong · K L Man 6 239.0 13-1/2
— 0 WIN FOR YOUTH T H So · K H Ting — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-12 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CIRCUIT HASSLER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with LEADING FORTUNE second and ROMAN IMPERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite SMART CHARADE finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CIRCUIT HASSLER—2. LEADING FORTUNE+1.25L3. ROMAN IMPERO+2.75L4. SMART CHARADE+2.75L5. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+3.25L6. MIGHTY POWER+3.5L7. MY WINNER+3.75L8. SOLAR POWER+4L9. GOOD SHOT+5L10. SMART WONGCHOY+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick SMART CHARADE (20.6%) finished 4th — the winner CIRCUIT HASSLER was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SMART CHARADE 20.6% 4.87 4
2 0 LEADING FORTUNE 19.4% 5.15 2
3 0 CIRCUIT HASSLER 15.8% 6.35 1
4 0 GOOD SHOT 10.1% 9.94 9
5 0 MY WINNER 5.9% 17.06 7
6 0 SMART WONGCHOY 5.8% 17.23 10
7 0 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 5.3% 18.86 5
8 0 MIGHTY POWER 5.1% 19.66 6
9 0 SOLAR POWER 3.9% 25.82 8
10 0 ROMAN IMPERO 3.6% 27.48 3
11 0 SPICY GRILL 2.7% 36.61 12
12 0 RED ZOFFANY 0.7% 137.49 14
13 0 PRIME TIME 0.6% 165.50 13
14 0 JOYFUL CHEERS 0.6% 175.24 11
SMART CHARADELEADING FORTUNECIRCUIT HASSLER — wonGOOD SHOTMY WINNERSMART WONGCHOYWINWIN THIRTYTHREEMIGHTY POWERSOLAR POWERROMAN IMPEROSPICY GRILLRED ZOFFANYPRIME TIMEJOYFUL CHEERS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 47.5

PLACE

2 17.5

3 18

10 62

QUINELLA

2,3 99

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 40

2,10 165.5

3,10 157.5

TIERCE

3,2,10 3,123

TRIO

2,3,10 642

FIRST 4

2,3,10,12 615

QUARTET

3,2,10,12 14,393

2ND DOUBLE

14/2 166

14/3 1,076.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 30

A3 —

A2 —