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Happy Valley · 2020-07-15

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course B 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-07-15 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MONEY WINNER, ridden by C Wong and trained by Y S Tsui, won by HD, with BUNDLE OF ENERGY second and BABY STORM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite BUNDLE OF ENERGY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.49.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 MONEY WINNER Closed strongly B- 1.49.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Wong · Y S Tsui 7 22.0 HD
2 2 BUNDLE OF ENERGY Closed strongly B Z Purton · D J Hall 10 3.7 HD
3 4 BABY STORM Led early H/TT C L Chau · L Ho 12 10.0 1-1/4
4 3 HAY RUN Closed strongly XB V Borges · L Ho 11 10.0 1-3/4
5 11 MONEY MARSHAL Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · D E Ferraris 8 16.0 2-3/4
6 7 SUCCESS ALLSTARS Closed strongly H W Lai · D E Ferraris 6 120.0 3-1/2
7 10 BRING IT ON CP1/TT T H So · C H Yip 1 13.0 3-3/4
8 8 KEEP WINNING TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 4 32.0 4
9 9 GREAT SMART CP/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 5 3.9 4
10 6 TURF BRILLIANT B K Teetan · W Y So 3 5.8 4-1/4
11 1 POLYMER LUCK B C Schofield · K H Ting 9 13.0 4-1/2
12 5 JOY N FUN LEGEND H-/B2/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 2 47.0 5

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MONEY WINNER2. BUNDLE OF ENERGY+0.2L3. BABY STORM+1.25L4. HAY RUN+1.75L5. MONEY MARSHAL+2.75L6. SUCCESS ALLSTARS+3.5L7. BRING IT ON+3.75L8. KEEP WINNING+4L9. GREAT SMART+4L10. TURF BRILLIANT+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BUNDLE OF ENERGY (21.4%) finished 2nd — the winner MONEY WINNER was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 BUNDLE OF ENERGY 21.4% 4.68 2
2 6 TURF BRILLIANT 16.8% 5.97 10
3 9 GREAT SMART 14.9% 6.70 9
4 4 BABY STORM 12.1% 8.27 3
5 11 MONEY MARSHAL 7.5% 13.37 5
6 12 MONEY WINNER 6.4% 15.53 1
7 3 HAY RUN 6.4% 15.73 4
8 8 KEEP WINNING 5.1% 19.59 8
9 10 BRING IT ON 3.7% 26.67 7
10 1 POLYMER LUCK 3.7% 27.20 11
11 5 JOY N FUN LEGEND 1.1% 92.87 12
12 7 SUCCESS ALLSTARS 1.0% 101.64 6
BUNDLE OF ENERGYTURF BRILLIANTGREAT SMARTBABY STORMMONEY MARSHALMONEY WINNER — wonHAY RUNKEEP WINNINGBRING IT ONPOLYMER LUCKJOY N FUN LEGENDSUCCESS ALLSTARS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 226.5

PLACE

2 15

4 34

12 53.5

QUINELLA

2,12 426

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 77

2,12 156

4,12 339

TIERCE

12,2,4 10,971

TRIO

2,4,12 1,439

FIRST 4

2,3,4,12 3,152

QUARTET

12,2,4,3 117,144

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 29.5

A1