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Happy Valley · 2020-07-15

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.49.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MONEY WINNER Closed strongly B- 1.49.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Wong · Y S Tsui 7 22.0 HD
2 0 BUNDLE OF ENERGY Closed strongly B Z Purton · D J Hall 10 3.7 HD
3 0 BABY STORM Led early H/TT C L Chau · L Ho 12 10.0 1-1/4
4 0 HAY RUN Closed strongly XB V Borges · L Ho 11 10.0 1-3/4
5 0 MONEY MARSHAL Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · D E Ferraris 8 16.0 2-3/4
6 0 SUCCESS ALLSTARS Closed strongly H W Lai · D E Ferraris 6 120.0 3-1/2
7 0 BRING IT ON CP1/TT T H So · C H Yip 1 13.0 3-3/4
8 0 KEEP WINNING TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 4 32.0 4
9 0 GREAT SMART CP/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 5 3.9 4
10 0 TURF BRILLIANT B K Teetan · W Y So 3 5.8 4-1/4
11 0 POLYMER LUCK B C Schofield · K H Ting 9 13.0 4-1/2
12 0 JOY N FUN LEGEND H-/B2/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 2 47.0 5

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-07-15 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MONEY WINNER, ridden by C Wong and trained by Y S Tsui, won by HD, with BUNDLE OF ENERGY second and BABY STORM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite BUNDLE OF ENERGY finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MONEY WINNER—2. BUNDLE OF ENERGY+0.2L3. BABY STORM+1.25L4. HAY RUN+1.75L5. MONEY MARSHAL+2.75L6. SUCCESS ALLSTARS+3.5L7. BRING IT ON+3.75L8. KEEP WINNING+4L9. GREAT SMART+4L10. TURF BRILLIANT+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BUNDLE OF ENERGY (21.4%) finished 2nd — the winner MONEY WINNER was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BUNDLE OF ENERGY 21.4% 4.68 2
2 0 TURF BRILLIANT 16.8% 5.97 10
3 0 GREAT SMART 14.9% 6.70 9
4 0 BABY STORM 12.1% 8.27 3
5 0 MONEY MARSHAL 7.5% 13.37 5
6 0 MONEY WINNER 6.4% 15.53 1
7 0 HAY RUN 6.4% 15.73 4
8 0 KEEP WINNING 5.1% 19.59 8
9 0 BRING IT ON 3.7% 26.67 7
10 0 POLYMER LUCK 3.7% 27.20 11
11 0 JOY N FUN LEGEND 1.1% 92.87 12
12 0 SUCCESS ALLSTARS 1.0% 101.64 6
BUNDLE OF ENERGYTURF BRILLIANTGREAT SMARTBABY STORMMONEY MARSHALMONEY WINNER — wonHAY RUNKEEP WINNINGBRING IT ONPOLYMER LUCKJOY N FUN LEGENDSUCCESS ALLSTARS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 226.5

PLACE

2 15

4 34

12 53.5

QUINELLA

2,12 426

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 77

2,12 156

4,12 339

TIERCE

12,2,4 10,971

TRIO

2,4,12 1,439

FIRST 4

2,3,4,12 3,152

QUARTET

12,2,4,3 117,144

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 29.5

A1 —