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Happy Valley · 2020-07-15

Race 8

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2020-07-15 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SOLAR WAI WAI, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with MAGNIFICENT second and GREEN LUCK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite STAR SHINE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.38.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SOLAR WAI WAI Closed strongly 1.38.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor 10 9.6 1-1/4
2 6 MAGNIFICENT Led early H T Mo · L Ho 9 8.0 1-1/4
3 5 GREEN LUCK Closed strongly V1 C Schofield · C Fownes 3 9.7 1-1/2
4 8 SUNSHINE WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 1 7.0 2-1/2
5 4 STAR SHINE Closed strongly TT Z Purton · K W Lui 2 3.7 2-3/4
6 9 EASY GO EASY WIN V/XB V Borges · D J Whyte 4 30.0 3
7 3 SHINING GEM Closed strongly CP K C Leung · P F Yiu 6 26.0 3-1/4
8 1 BUTTERFIELD TT C L Chau · C S Shum 5 6.1 3-1/2
9 12 UNCLE STEVE SR/XB T H So · D J Whyte 8 30.0 4-1/4
10 2 INSAYSHABLE Closed strongly B Shinn · Y S Tsui 12 29.0 4-1/2
11 7 HIGH REV B-/XB/BO1 M F Poon · D J Hall 7 7.9 5-3/4
12 10 HELENA BABY M L Yeung · J Moore 11 26.0 7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SOLAR WAI WAI2. MAGNIFICENT+1.25L3. GREEN LUCK+1.5L4. SUNSHINE WARRIOR+2.5L5. STAR SHINE+2.75L6. EASY GO EASY WIN+3L7. SHINING GEM+3.25L8. BUTTERFIELD+3.5L9. UNCLE STEVE+4.25L10. INSAYSHABLE+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick STAR SHINE (16.0%) finished 5th — the winner SOLAR WAI WAI was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 STAR SHINE 16.0% 6.24 5
2 8 SUNSHINE WARRIOR 13.0% 7.69 4
3 1 BUTTERFIELD 12.5% 8.02 8
4 6 MAGNIFICENT 9.7% 10.36 2
5 11 SOLAR WAI WAI 9.4% 10.68 1
6 3 SHINING GEM 9.0% 11.11 7
7 5 GREEN LUCK 9.0% 11.11 3
8 7 HIGH REV 7.0% 14.28 11
9 9 EASY GO EASY WIN 5.1% 19.52 6
10 12 UNCLE STEVE 3.4% 29.21 9
11 2 INSAYSHABLE 3.2% 31.63 10
12 10 HELENA BABY 2.8% 36.10 12
STAR SHINESUNSHINE WARRIORBUTTERFIELDMAGNIFICENTSOLAR WAI WAI — wonSHINING GEMGREEN LUCKHIGH REVEASY GO EASY WINUNCLE STEVEINSAYSHABLEHELENA BABY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 96

PLACE

5 30

6 23.5

11 34

QUINELLA

6,11 653.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 150

5,11 212.5

6,11 199.5

TIERCE

11,6,5 11,381

TRIO

5,6,11 2,249

FIRST 4

5,6,8,11 2,072

QUARTET

11,6,5,8 58,494

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 16.5

A1

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

1/6 52

1/11 1,081.5