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Happy Valley · 2020-07-15

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-07-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. POWER KING, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with SELL MY SOLE second and HONEST WAY third. The 2.3 favourite SELL MY SOLE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 POWER KING H/TT 1.09.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · A S Cruz 6 4.4 N
2 4 SELL MY SOLE E V Borges · J Size 1 2.3 N
3 1 HONEST WAY CP Z Purton · D E Ferraris 8 6.1 1-1/4
4 6 DIAMOND RHYME CP C Wong · F C Lor 9 74.0 1-1/2
5 8 HAPPY TANGO B/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 5 12.0 1-3/4
6 5 AMAZING TT K C Leung · T P Yung 12 46.0 2
7 9 EVERBRAVE M Chadwick · K L Man 3 27.0 2
8 11 STOCK LEGEND B M L Yeung · K H Ting 7 19.0 3
9 12 THE SHOW B2 K H Chan · C W Chang 2 24.0 3-1/2
10 2 VERY RICH MAN H H T Mo · L Ho 10 21.0 3-3/4
11 7 SUPER KIN TT C Schofield · C Fownes 11 12.0 4-3/4
12 10 LUCKY GUY B2/TT M F Poon · C H Yip 4 48.0 6

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. POWER KING2. SELL MY SOLE+0.05L3. HONEST WAY+1.25L4. DIAMOND RHYME+1.5L5. HAPPY TANGO+1.75L6. AMAZING+2L7. EVERBRAVE+2L8. STOCK LEGEND+3L9. THE SHOW+3.5L10. VERY RICH MAN+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick SELL MY SOLE (26.2%) finished 2nd — the winner POWER KING was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SELL MY SOLE 26.2% 3.82 2
2 3 POWER KING 20.2% 4.94 1
3 8 HAPPY TANGO 11.2% 8.91 5
4 7 SUPER KIN 10.0% 10.03 11
5 1 HONEST WAY 9.0% 11.17 3
6 6 DIAMOND RHYME 5.7% 17.57 4
7 10 LUCKY GUY 4.6% 21.81 12
8 9 EVERBRAVE 4.3% 23.12 7
9 5 AMAZING 2.9% 35.08 6
10 11 STOCK LEGEND 2.6% 37.82 8
11 12 THE SHOW 2.3% 43.03 9
12 2 VERY RICH MAN 1.0% 98.77 10
SELL MY SOLEPOWER KING — wonHAPPY TANGOSUPER KINHONEST WAYDIAMOND RHYMELUCKY GUYEVERBRAVEAMAZINGSTOCK LEGENDTHE SHOWVERY RICH MAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 44

PLACE

1 19.5

3 17

4 13

QUINELLA

3,4 66.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 51.5

1,4 39.5

3,4 31

TIERCE

3,4,1 694

TRIO

1,3,4 127

FIRST 4

1,3,4,6 1,518

QUARTET

3,4,1,6 20,863

2ND DOUBLE

4/3 260.5

4/4 20

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 15

A3