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Happy Valley · 2020-07-15

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-07-15 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. THE RUNNER, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with CALIFORNIA RAD second and HIGH RISE SOLDIER third. The 3.7 favourite CALIFORNIA RAD finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 THE RUNNER SR 1.09.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · D J Whyte 1 10.0 N
2 2 CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 11 3.7 N
3 6 HIGH RISE SOLDIER B Z Purton · K W Lui 9 8.4 1
4 7 FLYING BONUS K H Chan · C H Yip 2 9.7 1-1/4
5 9 LORIZ K C Leung · P F Yiu 6 9.0 1-1/4
6 8 LE TERROIR CP/XB M F Poon · L Ho 7 7.4 1-3/4
7 5 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED B V Borges · J Moore 4 6.7 2-1/2
8 11 CHIKORITA XB M Chadwick · C W Chang 3 12.0 4
9 10 LONDON LUCKYSTAR B H W Lai · D E Ferraris 12 86.0 4-1/2
10 1 SPEED VISION B/TT C Wong · F C Lor 8 49.0 5
11 3 GOOD FOR YOU B C L Chau · Y S Tsui 10 13.0 6-1/2
12 4 BABY B T H So · K H Ting 5 21.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE RUNNER2. CALIFORNIA RAD+0.05L3. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+1L4. FLYING BONUS+1.25L5. LORIZ+1.25L6. LE TERROIR+1.75L7. TAKE WHAT YOU NEED+2.5L8. CHIKORITA+4L9. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+4.5L10. SPEED VISION+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick CALIFORNIA RAD (18.0%) finished 2nd — the winner THE RUNNER was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 CALIFORNIA RAD 18.0% 5.57 2
2 5 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED 17.0% 5.87 7
3 7 FLYING BONUS 12.6% 7.94 4
4 9 LORIZ 10.1% 9.88 5
5 6 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 9.9% 10.10 3
6 12 THE RUNNER 7.2% 13.90 1
7 11 CHIKORITA 6.7% 14.84 8
8 1 SPEED VISION 4.2% 23.90 10
9 3 GOOD FOR YOU 3.8% 26.14 11
10 4 BABY 3.8% 26.66 12
11 8 LE TERROIR 3.5% 28.65 6
12 10 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 3.2% 31.07 9
CALIFORNIA RADTAKE WHAT YOU NEEDFLYING BONUSLORIZHIGH RISE SOLDIERTHE RUNNER — wonCHIKORITASPEED VISIONGOOD FOR YOUBABYLE TERROIRLONDON LUCKYSTAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 105.5

PLACE

2 16.5

6 27.5

12 36.5

QUINELLA

2,12 202

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 48

2,12 78.5

6,12 132.5

TIERCE

12,2,6 3,510

TRIO

2,6,12 372

FIRST 4

2,6,7,12 954

QUARTET

12,2,6,7 29,406

3 PICK 1

A3 21.5

A1

A2

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

6/2 13

6/12 373.5