Happy Valley · 2020-07-15
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-07-15 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. OVERSUBSCRIBED, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN second and SHOW MISSION third. The 4.5 favourite FLYING MONKEY finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | OVERSUBSCRIBED XB 0.57.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 2 | 5.1 | N |
| 2 | 5 | CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN V B Shinn · L Ho | B Shinn | L Ho | 5 | 11.0 | N |
| 3 | 9 | SHOW MISSION B K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 11 | 30.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | VITAL SPRING CP1/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 7.3 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | LA BOMBA TT C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 1 | 4.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | JIMSON THE DRAGON B/XB/TT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 10 | 25.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 7 | FAIRY FLOSS H-/B C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 3 | 9.7 | 2 |
| 8 | 8 | FLYING MONKEY BO/TT V Borges · J Moore | V Borges | J Moore | 9 | 4.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | APOLLOS BOW C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 6 | 33.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | BANDY B K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 8 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 1 | I'M THE CONQUIST B H N Wong · P O'Sullivan | H N Wong | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 19.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | GUERDON HELMET CP-/B2 H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 12 | 43.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 18.4% | 5.45 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | JIMSON THE DRAGON | 16.4% | 6.08 | 6 |
| 3 | 7 | FAIRY FLOSS | 15.0% | 6.67 | 7 |
| 4 | 6 | LA BOMBA | 14.7% | 6.79 | 5 |
| 5 | 8 | FLYING MONKEY | 9.2% | 10.89 | 8 |
| 6 | 3 | VITAL SPRING | 7.9% | 12.60 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | I'M THE CONQUIST | 5.0% | 20.17 | 11 |
| 8 | 2 | APOLLOS BOW | 3.9% | 25.59 | 9 |
| 9 | 11 | BANDY | 3.8% | 25.99 | 10 |
| 10 | 9 | SHOW MISSION | 2.7% | 36.66 | 3 |
| 11 | 5 | CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN | 1.9% | 51.29 | 2 |
| 12 | 12 | GUERDON HELMET | 1.0% | 105.23 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 51
PLACE
4 20
5 36
9 77
QUINELLA
4,5 399
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 128.5
4,9 200.5
5,9 593
TIERCE
4,5,9 13,819
TRIO
4,5,9 3,563
FIRST 4
3,4,5,9 3,934
QUARTET
4,5,9,3 84,343
1ST DOUBLE
12/4 1,384.5
12/5 644.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 20.5
A1 —