Happy Valley · 2020-07-15
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2020-07-15 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BEAR AGAIN, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D E Ferraris, won by N, with ALPHA HEDGE second and SHAMPORT third. The winner led throughout. The 2.8 favourite ALPHA HEDGE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BEAR AGAIN Wire to wire SR 1.40.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 2 | 5.2 | N |
| 2 | 3 | ALPHA HEDGE Closed strongly CP Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 4 | 2.8 | N |
| 3 | 7 | SHAMPORT TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 7 | 7.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | CINQUANTE CINQ Closed strongly C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 9.7 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | BEST ALLIANCE Closed strongly XB V Borges · D J Whyte | V Borges | D J Whyte | 11 | 8.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | FENRIR Closed strongly H/SR/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 3 | 56.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 11 | RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 6 | 8.2 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | TURIN REDSTAR V/TT2 K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 8 | 23.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | KASI FARASI T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 5 | 53.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 12 | CHARITY WINGS B C Wong · C S Shum | C Wong | C S Shum | 9 | 37.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | JOYFUL HEART CP/TT C Schofield · F C Lor | C Schofield | F C Lor | 12 | 23.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 2 | PICKEN K H Chan · J Size | K H Chan | J Size | 10 | 19.0 | 5 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BEAR AGAIN | 18.8% | 5.33 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | CINQUANTE CINQ | 17.1% | 5.86 | 4 |
| 3 | 3 | ALPHA HEDGE | 16.1% | 6.21 | 2 |
| 4 | 7 | SHAMPORT | 8.9% | 11.24 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 | BEST ALLIANCE | 8.5% | 11.70 | 5 |
| 6 | 11 | RED ELYSEES | 7.9% | 12.68 | 7 |
| 7 | 2 | PICKEN | 6.0% | 16.76 | 12 |
| 8 | 10 | JOYFUL HEART | 5.9% | 16.86 | 11 |
| 9 | 12 | CHARITY WINGS | 4.2% | 23.78 | 10 |
| 10 | 8 | KASI FARASI | 2.8% | 35.93 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | FENRIR | 2.4% | 40.92 | 6 |
| 12 | 5 | TURIN REDSTAR | 1.4% | 71.45 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 52
PLACE
1 17
3 13.5
7 22.5
QUINELLA
1,3 71.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 28.5
1,7 68
3,7 29.5
TIERCE
1,3,7 611
TRIO
1,3,7 79
FIRST 4
1,3,4,7 127
QUARTET
1,3,7,4 2,734
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,6,12/1,3,7 3,218
All pools (4 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 24
6TH DOUBLE
12/1 914
12/3 81.5
TRIPLE TRIO
6,7,8/2,6,12/1,3,7 280,058
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
6,7,8/2,6,12/Any Combination 4,070