Happy Valley · 2020-07-15
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-07-15 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LUCKY MISSILE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won by 1, with UNIVERSAL GO GO second and INCANTO PREPARED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite UNIVERSAL GO GO finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | LUCKY MISSILE Closed strongly CP1 1.39.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 9.4 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | UNIVERSAL GO GO Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 3.9 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | INCANTO PREPARED Closed strongly E/TT C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 2 | 5.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | GO BALLISTIC Closed strongly SR/TT K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 6 | 6.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | PARTY TOGETHER V/XB Z Purton · L Ho | Z Purton | L Ho | 7 | 5.1 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | BIG BANG BONG Closed strongly TT B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 12 | 36.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 1 | DYNAMIC EAGLE Closed strongly B/H/XB/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 4 | 32.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | MY FAMILY Closed strongly K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 11 | 45.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | SUPER WINNER Led early TT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 8 | 15.0 | 9 |
| 10 | 11 | HAPPY ICHIBAN B V Borges · D J Whyte | V Borges | D J Whyte | 10 | 7.9 | 10-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | THE DRIVE B1/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 9 | 70.0 | 14 |
| 12 | 6 | LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT B/TT M L Yeung · J Moore | M L Yeung | J Moore | 1 | 37.0 | 14-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | PARTY TOGETHER | 19.5% | 5.12 | 5 |
| 2 | 7 | GO BALLISTIC | 13.7% | 7.31 | 4 |
| 3 | 11 | HAPPY ICHIBAN | 13.3% | 7.51 | 10 |
| 4 | 5 | UNIVERSAL GO GO | 12.1% | 8.28 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | INCANTO PREPARED | 11.0% | 9.08 | 3 |
| 6 | 12 | LUCKY MISSILE | 7.4% | 13.60 | 1 |
| 7 | 1 | DYNAMIC EAGLE | 5.7% | 17.56 | 7 |
| 8 | 6 | LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT | 5.6% | 17.78 | 12 |
| 9 | 10 | SUPER WINNER | 4.9% | 20.55 | 9 |
| 10 | 9 | MY FAMILY | 3.0% | 33.77 | 8 |
| 11 | 3 | BIG BANG BONG | 2.5% | 39.34 | 6 |
| 12 | 4 | THE DRIVE | 1.3% | 75.66 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 94
PLACE
5 15.5
8 19
12 27
QUINELLA
5,12 187.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 39.5
5,12 61
8,12 92
TIERCE
12,5,8 1,839
TRIO
5,8,12 223
FIRST 4
5,7,8,12 387
QUARTET
12,5,8,7 11,799
3 PICK 1
A2 22.5
A3 —
A1 —
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
3/5 37
3/12 542.5