Sha Tin · 2020-09-06
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-06 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. PERFECT MATCH, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/2, with JOLLY BANNER second and VICTORIAM third. The 3.4 favourite COMPUTER PATCH finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | PERFECT MATCH B/TT 1.08.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 8 | 8.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | JOLLY BANNER B C L Chau · P F Yiu | C L Chau | P F Yiu | 7 | 39.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | VICTORIAM M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 2 | 14.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | COMPUTER PATCH XB-/TT1 K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 5 | 3.4 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | RATTAN CP-/B2 C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 10 | 16.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | CHAMPION'S WAY B/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 3 | 3.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | FAT TURTLE B C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 4 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | WISHFUL THINKER B Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 6 | 11.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | AMAZING STAR V Borges · K H Ting | V Borges | K H Ting | 9 | 19.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | BEAUTY LEGACY E N Callan · J Size | N Callan | J Size | 11 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | SHINING ACE B M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 1 | 13.0 | 6 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | COMPUTER PATCH | 36.2% | 2.76 | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | CHAMPION'S WAY | 13.3% | 7.50 | 6 |
| 3 | 6 | PERFECT MATCH | 9.5% | 10.55 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | VICTORIAM | 7.9% | 12.64 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | SHINING ACE | 7.8% | 12.84 | 11 |
| 6 | 5 | FAT TURTLE | 6.3% | 15.93 | 7 |
| 7 | 7 | BEAUTY LEGACY | 4.8% | 20.74 | 10 |
| 8 | 1 | WISHFUL THINKER | 4.7% | 21.44 | 8 |
| 9 | 8 | AMAZING STAR | 3.7% | 26.67 | 9 |
| 10 | 2 | RATTAN | 3.1% | 32.45 | 5 |
| 11 | 4 | JOLLY BANNER | 2.7% | 37.18 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 80.5
PLACE
4 85.5
6 33.5
11 41.5
QUINELLA
4,6 1,415
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 384
4,11 621
6,11 154.5
FORECAST
6,4 2,225
TIERCE
6,4,11 26,413
TRIO
4,6,11 4,317
FIRST 4
4,6,10,11 4,043
QUARTET
6,4,11,10 153,205
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 33.5
A3 —
7TH DOUBLE
6/4 192.5
6/6 294.5