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Sha Tin · 2020-09-06

Race 8

Class 1 GOOD 1200m Course A 11 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-06 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. PERFECT MATCH, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/2, with JOLLY BANNER second and VICTORIAM third. The 3.4 favourite COMPUTER PATCH finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.08.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 PERFECT MATCH B/TT 1.08.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum 8 8.0 1-1/2
2 4 JOLLY BANNER B C L Chau · P F Yiu 7 39.0 1-1/2
3 11 VICTORIAM M F Poon · K W Lui 2 14.0 2
4 10 COMPUTER PATCH XB-/TT1 K Teetan · A S Cruz 5 3.4 2
5 2 RATTAN CP-/B2 C Schofield · R Gibson 10 16.0 2-3/4
6 3 CHAMPION'S WAY B/TT J Moreira · J Size 3 3.9 2-3/4
7 5 FAT TURTLE B C Y Ho · F C Lor 4 11.0 3-1/4
8 1 WISHFUL THINKER B Z Purton · C H Yip 6 11.0 3-1/2
9 8 AMAZING STAR V Borges · K H Ting 9 19.0 3-3/4
10 7 BEAUTY LEGACY E N Callan · J Size 11 11.0 4-1/4
11 9 SHINING ACE B M Chadwick · J Size 1 13.0 6

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PERFECT MATCH2. JOLLY BANNER+1.5L3. VICTORIAM+2L4. COMPUTER PATCH+2L5. RATTAN+2.75L6. CHAMPION'S WAY+2.75L7. FAT TURTLE+3.25L8. WISHFUL THINKER+3.5L9. AMAZING STAR+3.75L10. BEAUTY LEGACY+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick COMPUTER PATCH (36.2%) finished 4th — the winner PERFECT MATCH was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 COMPUTER PATCH 36.2% 2.76 4
2 3 CHAMPION'S WAY 13.3% 7.50 6
3 6 PERFECT MATCH 9.5% 10.55 1
4 11 VICTORIAM 7.9% 12.64 3
5 9 SHINING ACE 7.8% 12.84 11
6 5 FAT TURTLE 6.3% 15.93 7
7 7 BEAUTY LEGACY 4.8% 20.74 10
8 1 WISHFUL THINKER 4.7% 21.44 8
9 8 AMAZING STAR 3.7% 26.67 9
10 2 RATTAN 3.1% 32.45 5
11 4 JOLLY BANNER 2.7% 37.18 2
COMPUTER PATCHCHAMPION'S WAYPERFECT MATCH — wonVICTORIAMSHINING ACEFAT TURTLEBEAUTY LEGACYWISHFUL THINKERAMAZING STARRATTANJOLLY BANNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 80.5

PLACE

4 85.5

6 33.5

11 41.5

QUINELLA

4,6 1,415

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 384

4,11 621

6,11 154.5

FORECAST

6,4 2,225

TIERCE

6,4,11 26,413

TRIO

4,6,11 4,317

FIRST 4

4,6,10,11 4,043

QUARTET

6,4,11,10 153,205

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 33.5

A3

7TH DOUBLE

6/4 192.5

6/6 294.5