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Sha Tin · 2020-09-06

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MONGOLIAN KING Closed strongly B 1.21.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · Y S Tsui 4 5.4 1
2 0 BALLISTIC KING Closed strongly C Schofield · K H Ting 13 14.0 1
3 0 STAR SHINE Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 14 26.0 1
4 0 SUPER OASIS Closed strongly B/XB C L Chau · P F Yiu 5 4.7 2-1/2
5 0 KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly SR M L Yeung · C W Chang 12 99.0 3-1/4
6 0 BEAUTY APPLAUSE Led early TT J Moreira · J Size 9 3.4 4-1/4
7 0 KING OPIE V V Borges · F C Lor 2 57.0 4-1/4
8 0 AMAZING BEATS Closed strongly CP A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan 10 102.0 5
9 0 RACING FIGHTER B/TT C Wong · C H Yip 1 114.0 6
10 0 SUPER WEALTHY A Badel · D J Whyte 8 4.6 6
11 0 FLASHCARD TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 6 109.0 8-1/2
12 0 MONICA B-/TT- M F Poon · D A Hayes 3 44.0 10-1/2
13 0 NORTHERN SUPERSTAR B/TT K C Leung · A T Millard 7 125.0 10-3/4
14 0 HAPPY FUN V-/B2/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 11 8.2 26-1/4
— 0 AMAZING ONE PLUS · C S Shum — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-06 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MONGOLIAN KING, ridden by K Teetan and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1, with BALLISTIC KING second and STAR SHINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite BEAUTY APPLAUSE finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MONGOLIAN KING—2. BALLISTIC KING+1L3. STAR SHINE+1L4. SUPER OASIS+2.5L5. KYRUS UNICORN+3.25L6. BEAUTY APPLAUSE+4.25L7. KING OPIE+4.25L8. AMAZING BEATS+5L9. RACING FIGHTER+6L10. SUPER WEALTHY+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SUPER WEALTHY (20.1%) finished 10th — the winner MONGOLIAN KING was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SUPER WEALTHY 20.1% 4.99 10
2 0 BEAUTY APPLAUSE 16.9% 5.91 6
3 0 HAPPY FUN 13.2% 7.57 14
4 0 SUPER OASIS 11.3% 8.85 4
5 0 MONGOLIAN KING 10.2% 9.81 1
6 0 STAR SHINE 6.4% 15.57 3
7 0 BALLISTIC KING 5.3% 18.72 2
8 0 KING OPIE 4.3% 23.35 7
9 0 AMAZING BEATS 3.8% 26.60 8
10 0 RACING FIGHTER 3.4% 29.34 9
11 0 MONICA 1.8% 56.17 12
12 0 KYRUS UNICORN 1.3% 74.30 5
13 0 NORTHERN SUPERSTAR 1.2% 84.11 13
14 0 FLASHCARD 0.8% 127.67 11
SUPER WEALTHYBEAUTY APPLAUSEHAPPY FUNSUPER OASISMONGOLIAN KING — wonSTAR SHINEBALLISTIC KINGKING OPIEAMAZING BEATSRACING FIGHTERMONICAKYRUS UNICORNNORTHERN SUPERSTARFLASHCARD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 54

PLACE

2 16.5

4 60

7 32

QUINELLA

2,7 321.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 141.5

2,7 102.5

4,7 347.5

FORECAST

2,7 454

TIERCE

2,7,4 6,006

TRIO

2,4,7 2,067

FIRST 4

1,2,4,7 1,215

QUARTET

2,7,4,1 25,777

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 19.5

A3 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,13/2,4,7 254,597

9TH DOUBLE

4/2 144

4/7 61.5

SIX UP

2/2/6/6/4/2 549,471

2,4/2,9/2,6/4,6/1,4/2,7 23,415

1 [J Moreira] —

TREBLE

6/4/2 1,996

6/4/7 693