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Sha Tin · 2020-09-06

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BRIGHT KID, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won by 3/4, with BREEZE OF SPRING second and UNTOLD RICHES third. The 3.3 favourite UNTOLD RICHES finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 BRIGHT KID B/XB 1.09.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So 11 4.6 3/4
2 10 BREEZE OF SPRING CP2/TT1 K C Leung · L Ho 8 16.0 3/4
3 5 UNTOLD RICHES M L Yeung · C W Chang 7 3.3 1-1/4
4 6 FORTUNE MASTER C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 82.0 1-1/4
5 14 COPARTNER ERA B V Borges · W Y So 2 42.0 3
6 3 JUDY'S STAR N Callan · P O'Sullivan 5 4.4 3-1/2
7 11 HAPPY TANGO B/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 4 12.0 3-1/2
8 13 LUCKY GUY B-/TT M F Poon · C H Yip 1 14.0 5-1/2
9 1 DAY DAY RICH B/TT1 C L Chau · T P Yung 3 44.0 6
10 8 WAR LORD E/P1 J Moreira · J Size 9 26.0 7
11 12 ROCKET HAMMER B1 H N Wong · K H Ting 14 405.0 7-3/4
12 4 MORE THAN ENOUGH B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 6 9.0 8-1/2
13 7 INTERSTELLAR B/XB1/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard 10 23.0 9-1/4
14 9 FRESH POWER B/TT C Wong · Y S Tsui 13 85.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BRIGHT KID2. BREEZE OF SPRING+0.75L3. UNTOLD RICHES+1.25L4. FORTUNE MASTER+1.25L5. COPARTNER ERA+3L6. JUDY'S STAR+3.5L7. HAPPY TANGO+3.5L8. LUCKY GUY+5.5L9. DAY DAY RICH+6L10. WAR LORD+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick JUDY'S STAR (18.4%) finished 6th — the winner BRIGHT KID was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 JUDY'S STAR 18.4% 5.43 6
2 2 BRIGHT KID 17.2% 5.81 1
3 4 MORE THAN ENOUGH 15.3% 6.53 12
4 11 HAPPY TANGO 12.9% 7.74 7
5 7 INTERSTELLAR 7.9% 12.68 13
6 8 WAR LORD 6.0% 16.61 10
7 13 LUCKY GUY 4.7% 21.22 8
8 14 COPARTNER ERA 3.9% 25.74 5
9 5 UNTOLD RICHES 3.4% 29.05 3
10 6 FORTUNE MASTER 3.3% 30.33 4
11 10 BREEZE OF SPRING 3.0% 33.13 2
12 9 FRESH POWER 2.0% 49.49 14
13 1 DAY DAY RICH 1.3% 74.31 9
14 12 ROCKET HAMMER 0.5% 201.25 11
JUDY'S STARBRIGHT KID — wonMORE THAN ENOUGHHAPPY TANGOINTERSTELLARWAR LORDLUCKY GUYCOPARTNER ERAUNTOLD RICHESFORTUNE MASTERBREEZE OF SPRINGFRESH POWERDAY DAY RICHROCKET HAMMER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 46

PLACE

2 15.5

5 16.5

10 48

QUINELLA

2,10 443.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 38

2,10 144.5

5,10 121.5

FORECAST

2,10 585

TIERCE

2,10,5 3,335

TRIO

2,5,10 496

FIRST 4

2,5,6,10 6,517

QUARTET

2,10,5,6 112,317

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,12/2,5,10 250,459

3 PICK 1

A2 24.5

A3

A1

3RD DOUBLE

2/2 265.5

2/10 458