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Sha Tin · 2020-09-06

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-09-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WINSTON'S LAD, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with SUPER RED DRAGON second and ELIGERE third. The 4.5 favourite ALL JOYFUL finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 WINSTON'S LAD B 1.09.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 6.2 1-1/4
2 12 SUPER RED DRAGON B/TT A Badel · W Y So 8 9.0 1-1/4
3 1 ELIGERE B2 C Schofield · Y S Tsui 7 17.0 2-1/2
4 14 GOLDEN MISSION TT M F Poon · C W Chang 13 37.0 2-1/2
5 4 ALL JOYFUL V1 Z Purton · T P Yung 4 4.5 3-1/2
6 8 HERO STAR N Callan · K L Man 6 4.7 3-1/2
7 11 VIGOR CHAMP B M L Yeung · K H Ting 14 13.0 3-3/4
8 5 COLONEL B2/TT- V Borges · P F Yiu 3 17.0 4
9 13 DIAMOND PEGASUS B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 9 5.1 5
10 9 SAM'S LOVE TT H N Wong · C H Yip 1 41.0 5-1/4
11 3 ULTRA EXPRESS TT1 A Hamelin · A T Millard 5 119.0 5-1/2
12 6 VIVA CHEF H T Mo · L Ho 11 46.0 8-1/2
13 7 DAILY CHARM B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 12 133.0 11
14 10 NOBLE MAN E/TT J Moreira · J Size 10 30.0 17-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINSTON'S LAD2. SUPER RED DRAGON+1.25L3. ELIGERE+2.5L4. GOLDEN MISSION+2.5L5. ALL JOYFUL+3.5L6. HERO STAR+3.5L7. VIGOR CHAMP+3.75L8. COLONEL+4L9. DIAMOND PEGASUS+5L10. SAM'S LOVE+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick WINSTON'S LAD (11.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 WINSTON'S LAD 11.9% 8.41 1
2 8 HERO STAR 10.9% 9.21 6
3 4 ALL JOYFUL 10.2% 9.84 5
4 3 ULTRA EXPRESS 8.8% 11.36 11
5 11 VIGOR CHAMP 8.2% 12.21 7
6 14 GOLDEN MISSION 7.7% 12.91 4
7 13 DIAMOND PEGASUS 7.7% 12.92 9
8 12 SUPER RED DRAGON 6.6% 15.09 2
9 1 ELIGERE 6.4% 15.73 3
10 10 NOBLE MAN 6.0% 16.73 14
11 5 COLONEL 5.6% 17.73 8
12 7 DAILY CHARM 3.4% 29.63 13
13 9 SAM'S LOVE 3.3% 30.11 10
14 6 VIVA CHEF 3.3% 30.23 12
WINSTON'S LAD — wonHERO STARALL JOYFULULTRA EXPRESSVIGOR CHAMPGOLDEN MISSIONDIAMOND PEGASUSSUPER RED DRAGONELIGERENOBLE MANCOLONELDAILY CHARMSAM'S LOVEVIVA CHEF

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 62

PLACE

1 46.5

2 20.5

12 32

QUINELLA

2,12 289

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 171.5

1,12 297

2,12 94.5

FORECAST

2,12 865

TIERCE

2,12,1 7,271

TRIO

1,2,12 1,276

FIRST 4

1,2,12,14 7,067

QUARTET

2,12,1,14 98,496

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

11/2 297.5

11/12 87

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 27

A3