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Happy Valley · 2020-11-11

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 2200m Course B 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-11-11 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. HAY RUN, ridden by K C Leung and trained by L Ho, won by SH, with SOCKET ELITE second and YOUNG GLORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite SKY GEM finished 6th.

Result

Official · 2.17.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 HAY RUN Closed strongly XB 2.17.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · L Ho 8 17.0 SH
2 7 SOCKET ELITE Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C H Yip 3 134.0 SH
3 12 YOUNG GLORY Closed strongly A Badel · D E Ferraris 9 8.8 1-1/2
4 9 THE JOY OF GIVING Closed strongly B/H M L Yeung · C W Chang 6 32.0 1-3/4
5 2 SALTO OLIMPICO Closed strongly B H N Wong · D J Hall 2 15.0 3-1/4
6 3 SKY GEM Closed strongly B1 J Moreira · C Fownes 4 2.6 3-1/4
7 5 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB A Hamelin · A T Millard 11 11.0 3-3/4
8 1 JOLLY FOREVER P-/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 1 11.0 4
9 8 ART OF RAW Led early H/TT V Borges · C W Chang 12 7.5 9-1/4
10 6 MASTER ROMAN CP N Callan · W Y So 5 10.0 14-3/4
11 11 JOY N FUN LEGEND CP2/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 7 78.0 16
12 10 WICKER B K Teetan · R Gibson 10 7.4 26

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAY RUN2. SOCKET ELITE+0.1L3. YOUNG GLORY+1.5L4. THE JOY OF GIVING+1.75L5. SALTO OLIMPICO+3.25L6. SKY GEM+3.25L7. FORTUNE PATROL+3.75L8. JOLLY FOREVER+4L9. ART OF RAW+9.25L10. MASTER ROMAN+14.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SKY GEM (52.8%) finished 6th — the winner HAY RUN was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 SKY GEM 52.8% 1.90 6
2 6 MASTER ROMAN 9.2% 10.85 10
3 1 JOLLY FOREVER 6.8% 14.62 8
4 10 WICKER 6.4% 15.51 12
5 8 ART OF RAW 5.5% 18.21 9
6 4 HAY RUN 5.3% 18.73 1
7 5 FORTUNE PATROL 4.4% 22.67 7
8 12 YOUNG GLORY 2.7% 37.22 3
9 9 THE JOY OF GIVING 2.5% 40.51 4
10 11 JOY N FUN LEGEND 1.7% 59.17 11
11 2 SALTO OLIMPICO 1.6% 64.51 5
12 7 SOCKET ELITE 1.1% 90.08 2
SKY GEMMASTER ROMANJOLLY FOREVERWICKERART OF RAWHAY RUN — wonFORTUNE PATROLYOUNG GLORYTHE JOY OF GIVINGJOY N FUN LEGENDSALTO OLIMPICOSOCKET ELITE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 171.5

PLACE

4 46

7 265

12 27

QUINELLA

4,7 9,505.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 2,553

4,12 181

7,12 1,789.5

FORECAST

4,7 13,383

TIERCE

4,7,12 101,341

TRIO

4,7,12 33,307

FIRST 4

4,7,9,12 78,405

QUARTET

4,7,12,9 3,489,000

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

11/4 1,001.5

11/7 1,411

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 28